Merry Christmas: polar bears "not endangered"

Party on, dudes

But, but, but… polar bears are the poster child of global warming, er, climate change, er, global climate disruption, or something, aren’t they? They’re the canary in the coal mine for the planet aren’t they? Here’s the national, taxpayer funded broadcaster, the ABC, just a few days ago:

A recent study that suggests there is still a slim chance to save the animals from global warming.

Researchers say the polar bear population this year appears to be in even worse shape than last year.

Researchers have predicted that by the year 2050, only a third of the world’s 22,000 polar bears might be left. (source)

And here’s the über-alarmist Sydney Morning Herald, also just a few days ago:

Climate change is pushing Arctic mammals to mate with cousin species, in a trend that could be pushing the polar bear and other iconic animals towards extinction, biologists said.

“Rapidly melting Arctic sea ice imperils species through interbreeding as well as through habitat loss,” they said in a commentary appearing in the British science journal Nature.

“As more isolated populations and species come into contact, they will mate, hybrids will form, and rare species are likely to go extinct.” (source)

If your sources of news consisted solely of the ABC and the Fairfax press, which they do for many in Australia, you would be forgiven for thinking that polar bears are in dire risk of extinction, because of your evil SUV and your incandescent light bulbs, right? At least Barack Obama has made one sensible decision in his disastrous presidency (strangely not reported by either the SMH or the ABC):

The Obama administration is sticking with a George W. Bush-era decision to deny polar bears endangered species status.

In a court filing Wednesday, the Fish and Wildlife Service defended the previous administration’s decision to give the polar bear the less-protective “threatened” species designation, a move that will frustrate environmentalists [Excellent news! I just love frustrated environmentalists! - Ed] who hoped for stronger protections under the Endangered Species Act.

FWS Director Rowan Gould said the 2008 “threatened” listing was made “following careful analysis of the best scientific information, as required by the ESA.” [Pity they can't employ the same rigour with climate science - Ed]

Listing the polar bear as “endangered” as a result of global warming could open the door to using the Endangered Species Act to regulate greenhouse gases, an outcome the Obama administration has opposed. (source)

Odd last comment, since the Obama administration clearly doesn’t seem to mind the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulating greenhouse gases without congressional approval…

UK/Australian seasonal forecasts: FAIL

Verdict on Met Office and BoM

Both the UK Met Office and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are strapped in tight to the global warming rollercoaster. Their models staunchly ignore or play down any natural effects on the climate, and artificially enhance the effects of CO2 in order to prop up the pre-conceived alarmist agenda. As a result, their seasonal forecasts generally point towards warmer conditions [despite the fact that now there are freezing conditions in the UK, the alarmists are happy to bleat that such conditions are "consistent with global warming" - nobody in the MSM seems to bat an eyelid at the howling inconsistency there - why didn't the models predict harsher winters? - Ed]. It really doesn’t matter how many teraflops your multi-million-pound supercomputer can crunch through – if the models suck, it’s still Garbage In, Garbage Out.

The result of all this is particularly obvious in the UK right now, where the government, relying on such skewed forecasts, failed to adequately prepare the country for the heavy snowfalls and freezing conditions it has endured over the past week or so. The Met Office is suffering from a case of sudden short-term amnesia, as it claims that it never forecast milder conditions. Unfortunately, highly recommended UK blog Autonomous Mind has a longer memory, and posts a chart showing precisely that:

click to enlarge

The post also links to an article from October in the UK Daily Express, in which an independent forecaster challenges the Met Office’s prediction:

Positive Weather Solutions senior forecaster Jonathan Powell said: “It baffles me how the Met Office can predict a milder-than-average winter when all the indicators show this winter will have parallels to the last one.

“They are standing alone here, as ourselves and other independent forecasters are all predicting a colder-than-average winter.

“It will be interesting to see how predictions by the government-funded Met Office compare with independent forecasters.” (source)

Interesting indeed. Epic FAIL for the Met Office.

Now onto the BoM, which, as Jo Nova points out, has hit the jackpot with a trifecta of duff predictions, which are no doubt a result of models which are skewed towards the global warming narrative:

For this spring the Australian BOM predicted it would be dry and warm, instead we got very wet and quite cold.  The models are so bad on a regional basis, it’s uncannily like they are almost useful… if they call things “dry”, expect “wet”.

On August 24 the Australian BoM had pretty much no idea that any unusual wetness was headed their way. Toss a coin, 50:50, yes or no. Spring 2010 was going to be “average”, except in SW Western Australia where they claimed “a wetter than normal spring is favoured.” What follows were 100 year floods, or at least above average rain to nearly every part of the nation bar the part that was supposed to be getting more rainfall. In the chart below, all shades of “blue” got above average rainfall. The dark blue? That’s the highest rainfall on record.

Spring rainfall - click to enlarge

On August 24 the BOM predicted that spring would be “hot across the north”. Instead it was cold everywhere except in the west of WA.

Max spring temperatures - click to enlarge

Epic FAIL for the Australian BoM.

It seems that we can now rely only on those forecasters who are independent of any government-linked body. The virus of AGW alarmism has spread so far in Western governments and their agencies that they can no longer be trusted to produce unbiased forecasts, and the results of blinkered reliance on such forecasts is plain to see in the UK and Europe.

More green waste – Gillard's "Green Start" scrapped

Governments need plenty of these...

Because wasting taxpayers’ money and axing jobs is just fine, so long as we’re “saving the planet.” Of course, if we trace the logic back, green loan schemes such as this are theoretically needed to encourage people to invest in energy saving measures, which are necessary to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, which are the source of greenhouse gases, which are the cause of “dangerous global warming”… or so states the IPCC.

The Gillard government uncritically swallows everything the IPCC says, and shuts its eyes and ears to any dissenting views. It also blindly relies on various compromised government advisers, including ACM favourite Will Steffen, who has been in good form recently, mudslinging, spouting propaganda and smearing deniers. But why wouldn’t he? The entire careers of climate scientists the world over, including Steffen, is paved with gold from the AGW hysteria they themselves help to create, so even if they had any doubts, why would they dare reveal them in public and thereby help kill the golden goose?

But what does the government find? Tragically, it’s not the green utopia that Bob Brown and his cronies keep promising, but the unacceptable costs of spruiking a green agenda in the face of harsh economic reality.

So it’s little surprise that yet another “green” scheme collapses in a heap, following close on the heels of the home insulation (pink batts), solar rebates and Green Loans debacles, and all of it can be traced back to the spin and misrepresentations of the IPCC:

EIGHT months after the Federal Government axed its disastrous home insulation scheme, it announced yesterday it would also stop its “Green Start” program because there were too many “risks” involved.

The axing of the environmental scheme just days from Christmas means that, within weeks, thousands of people will be without work.

Labelled a “disaster” by the Federal Opposition, the Government’s original Green Loans program was yesterday slammed as a “disgrace and a sinful waste of money” by one NSW assessor.

The multi-million-dollar scheme was supposed to provide 360,000 households with energy-efficiency checks and access to interest-free loans of up to $10,000 for environmental improvements such as solar panels and insulation.

Following criticism of the administration of the scheme, the Government announced in July the Green Loans program would be replaced by a Green Start program, to be delivered in two rounds.

But Climate Change Minister Greg Combet yesterday announced the Government would dump Green Start, forcing nearly 10,000 accredited and uncontracted assessors – 4635 in NSW – to find alternative work. (source)

Who cares? It’s all well intentioned. What’s a few jobs and a few million dollars between friends compared to the future of the entire planet?

Snow in summer – Sydney Morning Herald blames "climate change"

10cm of global warming fell in NSW yesterday

I hope to do the occasional post over the next few weeks, as time permits, and I couldn’t resist this one. From the Weather Isn’t Climate (Except When We Say It Is) Department…

Once again, we have to ask the simple question: to a climate alarmist, what weather phenomenon would not be a sign of “climate change”? Warmer temperatures? Obviously not – it’s global warming, stupid. Colder temperatures. No, because climate change creates more “extremes” (apparently, when it suits their cause – like today). More rain? No, because one of our models predicted more rain. Less rain? No, because a different model predicted less rain as well. We could go on (and on, and on). The answer is, that there is nothing that isn’t a sign of climate change. Everything and everything is “consistent with it”.

So when snow fell in the New South Wales mountains yesterday, at the height of the southern hemisphere summer, the Moonbat Herald blames climate change in the first sentence of its report this morning:

AS CLIMATE change tips the planet inextricably towards a more complicated future the weather already presents as downright confusing. (source)

So the question for the warmists is this: what weather conditions would not indicate “climate change”? This needs an answer, because at the moment, if everything is a sign of climate change, the flip side of that same argument is that nothing is.

ACM to return in 2011

ACM: more comebacks than Ol' Blue Eyes...

Just a short post to let you know that ACM will return to blogging in 2011. The other projects that were taking my attention will be completed sooner than expected, and I am pleased to say that after a few weeks R & R, regular blogging will resume next year, probably late January or early February, with hopefully a few posts between now and then. Thanks to you all for your patience.

It will be fascinating year, as we watch the flimsy Labor/ Green alliance tear itself apart over the issue of climate change, which it almost certainly will – and I want to be in the front row.


CANdo – Conservative Action Network

Conservative Action Network

In the words of Senator Cory Bernardi, the driving force behind the new organisation, “a cross between the US Tea Party and GetUp!”.

CANdo is Australia’s grassroots Conservative Action Network.

CANdo is committed to bringing conservatives together who share a vision that limited government, lower taxes, free enterprise and traditional values will build a stronger Australia.

By joining CANdo you are linking with fellow conservatives to share information, engage in discussion and inspire action.

There is a Climate Coalition group within CANdo for issues concerning climate change.

Visit CANdo here and sign up!

IPCC: Pachauri stays, credibility goes

Subtracts credibility

As Shub Niggurath puts it:

“Here is an organization that cannot tackle its own internal issues, but yet expects the whole world to take advice from it for solving a supposed global problem.”

But I for one am not complaining that Pachauri is staying on – as I have said before, every day he remains in charge subtracts credibility from the IPCC, and that can only be a good thing. The recent meeting in Busan has deferred a number of key issues for later discussion:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has adopted new guidelines on dealing with scientific uncertainties following criticism of its 2007 report.

But the panel’s meeting in South Korea closed with many other reforms proposed in a recent review being passed to committees for further consideration.

Chairman Rajendra Pachauri confirmed his intention to stay in post until the next assessment is published in 2014.

In its recent review of the IPCC, the InterAcademy Council (IAC) – an umbrella group for the world’s science academies – highlighted a case in the 2007 assessment where studies projecting rapidly declining crop yields in Africa were given more weight than they merited, in the absence of supporting evidence.

The revised guidance emphasises that in future, authors must assess both the quality of research available and uncertainties within that research.

It urges authors to be careful of “group-think”, but maintains that it “may be appropriate to describe findings for which the evidence and understanding are overwhelming as statements of fact without using uncertainty qualifiers”.

Enhanced guidance on the use of “grey literature” – material not published in peer-reviewed scientific journals – has also been drawn up, and will be finalised by chairs of the IPCC’s working groups in the coming months

I can bet you that all the grey literature they use will plug the alarmist cause. There won’t be any that challenges the consensus, will there?

Read the rest here.

UPDATE: Must read – Donna Laframboise’s summary of the madness here.

Climate sense from The Australian

Which, let’s face it, is the only broadsheet in the country which demonstrates any kind of balance in the climate debate. The Fairfax press has already made up its mind on climate, suppresses any dissenting views, and spews one-sided alarmist propaganda on a daily basis. Two excellent opinion pieces and an editorial in The Australian today. Firstly, Bjorn Lomborg (the warmist/skeptic) warns against rapid action, which is precisely what Greg Combet advocated earlier in the week:

CLIMATE committees across the world are mistakenly putting the cart before the horse.

ADVOCATES of drastic cuts in carbon dioxide emissions now speak a lot less than they once did about climate change. Climate campaigners changed their approach after the collapse of the Copenhagen climate change summit last December, and the revelation of mistakes in the UN climate panel’s work, as well as in response to growing public scepticism and declining interest.

Although some activists still rely on scare tactics – witness the launch of an advertisement depicting the bombing of anybody who is hesitant to embrace carbon cuts – many activists now spend more time highlighting the “benefits” of their policy prescription. They no longer dwell on impending climate doom but on the economic windfall that will result from embracing the “green” economy. (source)

Then, Des Moore makes the blindingly obvious point that the science isn’t settled:

THE Royal Society’s report coincides with dissidence at the American Physical Society.

THE Royal Society’s September report, Climate Change: A Summary of the Science, has brought into the open the widening difference of views about how the science of climate change should be assessed. It comes after a prominent resignation from the American Physical Society (the top body of US physicists) for the refusal of the society’s executive to undertake a similar review despite requests from a large number of members.

In Australia, too, an examination of the Inter-Academy Council’s review of the processes and procedures of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that, although the council’s chairman claims the IPCC’s findings stand, the review itself exposes serious flaws in the panel’s information and analysis. The examination by this group, which is a follow-up to its recent publication in the British journal Energy & Environment, is now being widely distributed in Australia.

All three assessments reflect the revelations provided by the exchanges between scientists actively involved in climate research – now known as Climategate – that some research results appear to have been falsified. These reports have spread widely in science circles in Australia. However, apart from The Australian, there has been almost no reference to these revelations in the Australian media. The Age, which had not bothered to cover the Royal Society’s report, was quick to report that the Royal Society’s vice-president John Pethica (who chaired the report committee) had rejected suggestions that the society had changed its position on climate change. (source)

And finally, an editorial savages The Age for its hopelessly compromised and biased reporting on climate:

ON a subject as important as our climate, reasoned, informed public debate is the key to finding the consensus that must underpin an effective policy response.

Interest groups that attempt to keep the public in the dark by suppressing alternative views have succeeded only in eroding the credibility of their own arguments.

So it is puzzling that a supposedly liberal broadsheet newspaper, The Age, not only failed to cover the Royal Society’s revision of its Guide to the Science of Climate Change but took a swipe at those who did. The story, which The Age ignored when it broke in this and major British newspapers on October 2, was significant because the Royal Society is regarded as the world’s most authoritative scientific body. It was clear from our report and commentary that the society was not dismissing climate change — far from it. The need for co-ordinated global action is no less pressing. But the Royal Society guide undercuts many of the exaggerated claims of looming ecological disaster, spun in order to scare the public into supporting various political positions. (source)

Read them all!

Settled science: warming effect of CO2 cut by 65%

We know all there is to know

Once again, here we have an example of settled science, where no new discoveries about the climate are ever made these days and everything was set in stone ages ago. No, wait…

The warming effect of evil [harmless] carbon dioxide has been significantly overstated, and it is almost impossible to determine the “climate sensitivity”:

[…] the report is clear – CO2 does not account for even a majority of the warming seen over the past century. If other species [of atmospheric substance] accounted for 65% of historical warming that leaves only 35% for carbon dioxide. This, strangely enough, is in line with calculations based strictly on known atmospheric physics, calculations not biased by the IPCC’s hypothetical and bastardized “feedbacks.”

Of course, the real reason for the feedbacks was to allow almost all global warming to be attributed to CO2. This, in turn, would open the door for radical social and economic policies, allowing them to be enacted in the name of saving the world from global warming. The plain truth is that even climate scientists know that the IPCC case was a political witch’s brew concocted by UN bureaucrats, NGOs, grant money hungry scientists and fringe activists.

Now, after three decades of sturm und drang over climate policy, the truth has emerged – scientists have no idea of how Earth’s climate will change in the future because they don’t know why it changed in the past. Furthermore, it will take decades of additional study to gain a useful understand climate change. To do this, climate scientists will need further funding. Too bad the climate science community squandered any public trust it may have had by trying to frighten people with a lie. [my emphasis]

Read it here.

In other news:

  • Jo Nova eviscerates Robyn Williams, the ABC’s non-science journalist, who has forgotten what proper science is, doesn’t have a single sceptical brain cell in his head, but is pretty good on alarmism, pseudo-science, mudslinging and propaganda.
  • The government’s unofficial alarmist in chief, Will Steffen, who also doesn’t have a single sceptical brain cell, tells a conference in Hobart that sea levels are rising “at the top end of estimates”. Not sure how 3mm per year works out to be 1m by 2100. But hey, it’s just detail, and it sure makes a good story.

UK: Wind farm hell

Replace “wind” with “solar” and you have the carbon-priced future in Australia, except Australia doesn’t have a nuclear power backup for when it all goes horribly wrong. A truly enlightening, and shocking, video entitled “Europe’s Ill Wind” lifts the lid on the European wind farm fiasco. Thanks to the almost incomprehensible idiocy of politicians like Chris Huhne and Ed Miliband, the UK is heading towards deep Green oblivion. Last person to leave, please turn out the lights … no wait, they’ll be out already.

[hana-flv-player video=""
autoload="true" autoplay="false"
loop="false" autorewind="true"

Also, pay a visit to the web site: Europe’s Ill Wind, and leave a comment to show your support.


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