Of course there’s no link to “climate change” – it’s the Green Climate Monster at work, as we all know. Seriously, however, every alarmist and his dog (on a string, probably) rushed to cite the Pakistani floods as “evidence of climate change”, as did many politicians, Hillary Clinton included.
Now, however, a new peer reviewed paper reaches the boringly predictable conclusion that it was all “just weather”. Those of us in the sceptic blogosphere are not in the least bit amazed by this, since this is the proper, default position to adopt, in the absence of compelling evidence to the contrary (which there never is). There is no mention of climate in the paper… From Watts Up With That:
Last summer’s disastrous Pakistan floods that killed more than 2,000 people and left more than 20 million injured or homeless were caused by a rogue weather system that wandered hundreds of miles farther west than is normal for such systems, new research shows.
Storm systems that bring widespread, long-lasting rain over eastern India and Bangladesh form over the Bay of Bengal, at the east edge of India, said Robert Houze, a University of Washington atmospheric sciences professor. But Pakistan, on the Arabian Sea west of India, is substantially more arid and its storms typically produce only locally heavy rainfall.
The flooding began in July and at one point it was estimated that 20 percent of Pakistan’s total land area was under water. Structural damage was estimated at more than $4 billion, and the World Health Organization estimated that as many as 10 million people had to drink unsafe water.
Houze and colleagues examined radar data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite and were able to see that the rainfall that caused the Indus River in Pakistan to overflow was triggered over the Himalayas, within a storm system that had formed over the Bay of Bengal in late July and moved unusually far to the west. Because the rain clouds were within the moisture-laden storm from the east, they were able to pour abnormal amounts of rain on the barren mountainsides, which then ran into the Indus.
The progress of the storm system stood out in the satellite radar data, Houze said.
“We looked through 10 years of data from the satellite and we just never saw anything like this,” he said. “The satellite only passes over the area a couple of times a day, but it just happened to see these systems at a time when they were well developed.” (source)
But even ten years of satellite data is virtually nothing. What does that tell us about historical rainfall patterns? Square root of sweet FA, that’s what. And even they have concluded it’s just weather. Wonder what they would have said if they had had 1000 years of satellite data to consider…