The Bureau of Meteorology has just released its latest seasonal outlooks, and it is projecting a very high chance of a warmer than normal late Winter and early Spring over much of Australia:
The national outlook averaged over August to October 2012 shows the following:
- warmer days are more likely over most of Australia, except the northern tropics
- warmer nights are more likely over most of Australia, except for the far tropical north
This outlook is predominantly a result of warmer than normal waters in the Indian Ocean; emerging warmer than normal Pacific waters have had a lesser impact. (source)
The BoM is predicting 75-80% chance of this over much of the continent.
If you search the Seasonal Outlook archive for “cool” or “cooler” you get 14 results. If you search for “warm” or “warmer” you get over 100. The Bureau is clearly doing its bit to prop up the Cause, but I wonder how many of those projections were actually anywhere near right? Someone with the time should go through them and compare with the actual records (also available on the BoM website).
For example, in September 2011, the Bureau claimed that the October to December months would be, you guessed it, predominantly warmer, with Brisbane and Sydney looking at a 50-55% chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature. What actually happened?
- Sydney: coolest start to Summer in 51 years
- Brisbane: coldest December day in 123 years
- Sydney: coldest December in 50 years – no mention of “climate change”
And the same for December to February, where Warwick Hughes noted:
This summer has been cooler than average across vast areas of Australia. Which has been a surprise to the BoM.
The BoM 3 month summer temperature outlooks were issued in November – actual daytime temperature anomalies were cooler over vastly more area of Australia than the BoM predicted. The actual warmth along the Perth to Pilbara coast and Sth Aust & Vic turned out to be miniscule compared to the BoM predictions. Ditto for the Far North which turned out near average. The BoM scores some marks for their Eastern and Central Australian cool predict but all of their hot predictions turned out cooler and smaller.
Let’s see how they fare with this one… check back in October.