Aussies not fooled by relentless alarmism


Why mention Melbourne's temperatures??

Why mention Melbourne’s temperatures??

The Aussies can, thankfully, see straight through environmental scares.

They’ve heard all the doom and gloom before, they’ve seen all the hysteria, the wailing and gnashing of teeth from those suckling at the government’s teat. Then, if that weren’t enough, they look at the fudging of data, the enviro-activists posing as impartial scientists, the cover-ups, the abuse hurled at critics, the politically-motivated massaging of the message, and realise that the pronouncements of these troughers aren’t worth jack shit.

Australians rank climate change well down on their list of concerns, even though most believe temperatures where they live will rise, according to an annual survey of attitudes by the CSIRO.

On a list of 16 issues ranging from health and cost of living to terrorism and drug problems, climate change came in at just 14th.

Even among environmental issues, the climate ranked only seventh out of eight concerns, behind household waste and above only salinity.

Zoe Leviston, a social psychologist at CSIRO and lead author of the survey, said the ranking was “surprisingly low”, not least because more than 70 per cent of respondents also judged climate change to be either somewhat, very or extremely important. (source)

“Surprising” because, living in a bubble, like most CSIRO scientists do, Ms Leviston has no idea that the rest of the population have more pressing things to worry about, like paying bills, keeping their jobs – you know, trivial stuff… And get this:

Another finding from the CSIRO survey is that people tended to underestimate how widely accepted climate change is in the community. “Climate change denial, or contrarism, or whatever you want to call it, is overrated,” Dr Leviston said.

Yep, the Aussies don’t buy the 97% bullshit either. Onya! And note that anyone challenging the hysteria is either a ‘denier’ or a ‘contrarian’. Who’da thunk it?

Carbon tax will bury Labor


Out - In

A big public kissy-kissy party in the House of Reps after the vote, to rub the electorate’s collective noses in it, probably didn’t do much to help either:

TONY Abbott would be handed an overwhelming mandate to abolish the carbon tax if the coalition won the next election and he became the prime minister.

A clear majority of voters, 60 per cent, believe the Opposition Leader would have the electoral and moral authority to repeal the tax.

With the government’s asylum seeker policy also in disarray, the Coalition’s primary vote has now soared to a crushing 51 per cent, according to a Galaxy poll commissioned by The Daily Telegraph.

It is the largest primary vote the coalition has enjoyed in any poll since 1996 – when John Howard defeated Paul Keating – with Labor now stuck at a morale-sapping 29 per cent.

Meanwhile, a Nielsen poll, in Fairfax newspapers, shows the government would be swept away by a two-party preferred 57-43 per cent landslide.

Read it here.

Opinion polls: how to get the answer you want


The Sydney Morning Herald is in a state of high excitement today, as a new poll gives it a “two fingers up to deniers” moment (admittedly copied almost verbatim from the UK equivalent, The Guardian here):

EUROPEANS believe the dangers of climate change represent a more serious problem than the current financial turmoil, according to a major new poll.

The Eurobarometer poll found most people in the European Union consider global warming to be one of the world’s most serious problems, with one-fifth saying it is the single most serious problem.

Overall, respondents said climate change was the second most serious issue facing the world, after poverty.

Connie Hedegaard, European climate commissioner, said: ”This is encouraging news. The survey shows that the citizens of Europe can see that economic challenges are not the only ones we face. A clear majority of Europeans expect their politicians and business leaders to address the serious climate challenge now.” (source)

So as always, we check the questions, and here is the relevant extract from the lengthy PDF:

Loaded much?

So not only is the question headed “Climate Change”, but the first option on each answer is, that’s right, “Climate change”. And I am pretty sure that those asking the questions would have prefaced each interview with a spiel about how this was a poll about attitudes in Europe towards climate change as well, so the purpose of the questions would have been well and truly embedded in the respondents’ minds before the questions were even asked. And hey, we all want to give the “right” answer don’t we? But we must give them credit for the fact that even after all that badgering, they still put “Poverty, hunger and lack of drinking water” above climate change.

Furthermore, this is an opinion poll conducted on behalf of the climate change apparatchiks in Europe, as the disclosure statement reveals:

“This survey has been requested by the Directorate-General Climate action…

And the Introduction further reveals the inherent bias in the entire process:

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. The European Commission established its Directorate-General for Climate Action in February 2010 to strengthen Europe’s response to this issue (previously climate change was under the overall remit of DG Environment). 

So the weight we can place on these results is very suspect. But as usual, neither the SMH nor The Guardian asks any of these questions, and regurgitate the line without any critical thought, because it fits their pro-climate action agenda.

Ben Pile at Climate Resistance has more:

So here’s how it works… You take people by surprise. You ask them to chose from a narrow range of issues. And then you ask them again. And Again. And again. You don’t give them the benefit of making a decision in the context of a debate. And you don’t canvass them for their opinion about costs and benefits, either ‘globally’ or in relation to themselves. You don’t tell them that the results will be used to legitimise certain policies. You compare their opinions to a historic low, and say that the answers demonstrate growing support for your policies — the bases of which have never been tested for popular assent at the ballot box.

And EU Referendum here.

Labor values closer to Coalition than Greens


Extreme and out of touch

In yesterday’s post, Who will Julia alienate next?, I should have included Labor voters in the list of past examples, since her alliance with the Greens after the election betrayed her mainly centre-Left base to a bunch of extreme environmental whackos. New research supports the point, which is obviously a problem for Labor, given they are now completely dependent on appeasing the Greens in order to maintain a working majority:

THE core social values of Labor voters are far more closely aligned with Coalition supporters than Greens, a new social cohesion survey finds.

On a range of questions – such as valuing the “Australian way of life”, concern over immigration rates, the importance of migrants “blending in” and whether climate change is the nation’s most pressing problem – the response from Labor voters was more in sync with Coalition supporters than Greens.

Results from the Mapping Social Cohesion 2011 survey published today highlight the politically delicate nature of the Labor-Greens alliance in Canberra, as supporters of the two political parties value vastly different social policies.

Overall, the survey found the nation’s social cohesion in decline, with trust in government recording a sharp fall since 2009. More people report being discriminated against than two years ago, and volunteering declined from 38 per cent in 2009 to 31 per cent this year.

But it’s the differences between Greens and Labor supporters and similarities between backers of Labor and the Coalition that highlight the challenge faced by Julia Gillard and her ongoing ideological struggle to hold together minority government.

The report, written by Monash University researcher Andrew Markus, says “there is less differentiation between the attitudes of Liberal and Labor supporters than between Labor and Greens”.

“For example, 70 per cent of those who indicate that they would vote Liberal ‘strongly agree’ that it is important to maintain the ‘Australian way of life and culture’, compared with 62 per cent Labor and 26 per cent Greens,” it says.

“(And) 44 per cent of Liberal supporters ‘strongly agree’ that ‘in the long run’ in Australia ‘hard work brings a better life’ compared with 39 per cent Labor and 29 per cent Greens.”

The survey of 2000 people asked questions about culture and identity, including if it was better for the country if different racial or ethnic groups maintained their distinct customs or traditions or if they adapted and blended into the larger society. Seventy-two per cent of Coalition supporters believe it better to blend in, compared with 61 per cent of Labor supporters and 28 per cent of Greens supporters. (source)

Core Labor voters are becoming increasingly alienated by Labor’s lurch to the left on social issues. The reality is that the Greens’ extremism has no place in Australian politics and has no support within the vast majority of the Australian electorate. The sooner this Labor/Green alliance is defeated, the sooner the Greens will be relegated to the dustbin of history, where their policies and views belong.

59-41: Newspoll disaster for Labor


Inconsequential

Could we see Labor on sub-40%? Very possibly if they carry on like this. And Tony Abbott now leads Gillard by a clear margin as preferred PM:

JULIA Gillard’s personal support has plunged to a new low as Tony Abbott outstrips her as preferred prime minister and Kevin Rudd surges ahead as the best person to lead Labor.

The Prime Minister appears to have borne the brunt of public disapproval over the failure last week of the government’s plan to send 800 asylum-seekers to Malaysia. Voter satisfaction with Ms Gillard, who is now forced to deal with the Opposition Leader to keep alive the option of processing asylum-seekers overseas, fell six points to a record low of 23 per cent as dissatisfaction jumped seven points to 68 per cent. The only modern prime minister with worse personal support was Paul Keating, who had a satisfaction level of 17 per cent and dissatisfaction of 74 per cent in August 1993.

Ms Gillard’s net satisfaction rating – the difference between voter satisfaction and dissatisfaction – is now minus 45 per cent. As Ms Gillard’s personal standing fell, Mr Abbott jumped clear to a nine-point lead over her as the preferred prime minister, with a rise in support from 39 per cent to 43 per cent. Ms Gillard’s support fell four points to a new low of 34 per cent.

Based on preference flows at the last election, the Coalition has an all-time high two-party-preferred vote of 59 per cent compared with Labor’s 41 per cent. Such a result at an election would reduce Labor to a rump of a party, wiping out dozens of Labor MPs including many ministers. (source)

Treat the electorate with contempt, as Labor has done over and over again, and this is the result.

How do you feel now, Anthony Albanese, about your snide remarks to the Carbon Tax protesters? Labor is the Party of No Consequence, and the Government of Incompetence.

Labor abandons its core vote


Albanese

… in favour of an urban green intelligentsia. Summed up by that front-bench schoolyard bully Anthony Albanese, ridiculing the Convoy of No Confidence:

“The Convoy of No Consequence outside. The Convoy of No Consequence, Mr Speaker. The Convoy of No Consequence, where a coupla hundred people gathered with no support from the mainstream organisations, the people who believe in one world government.” (source)

These are core Labor voters, battlers, truckies, hard working Australians who have been abandoned by their natural party, a party which now pours scorn on their petty complaints, and prefers the company of the inner city liberal green elite. The message is clear – traditional Labor voters are not wanted anymore.

And in return, those formerly loyal voters continue to abandon Labor, with the party’s primary vote back to its lowest ever: 27%.

Oh, how Labor will be punished. It’s really not a matter of “if”, but “when”.

Labor's death spiral


No change

There is no respite for Labor. Julia Gillard has talked of everything except the carbon tax, and her popularity, and that of her government are still at record lows. As I have said before, people have simply switched off to Gillard and the government – no-one is taking the slightest bit of notice.

JULIA Gillard’s burst of policy outcomes in health, border protection and climate change has failed to lift her popularity, with the latest Newspoll showing no improvement for Labor in the past fortnight.

Despite a flurry of government policy activity in recent weeks, the Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian at the weekend found the Coalition ahead of Labor by 56 per cent to 44 per cent in two-party-preferred terms.

With the Coalition on a 47 per cent primary vote and Labor on 29 per cent, the results were identical to those of the previous Newspoll conducted from July 22-24.

Labor has been in the polling doldrums for months, with its attempts to bond with voters smashed by the Coalition’s campaign of opposition to its proposed carbon tax.

Read it here.

Few voters taken in by carbon tax bribe


Slightly less bad

It appears that a few Australians have fallen for the carbon tax propaganda over the last couple of weeks, lifting support for Labor by a couple of points. I guess that was inevitable: a small number of wavering voters were waiting for soothing words from the Government, and they got them. This isn’t the massive bounce Labor needs to get back into contention, that’s for sure:

VOTERS have warmed slightly to the carbon tax after two weeks of Julia Gillard wearing out her shoe leather selling the plan’s compensation package across Australia.

Support for the carbon tax rose six percentage points to 36 per cent, after sitting at 30 per cent for almost three months, according to the latest Newspoll survey.

The Newspoll, conducted last weekend exclusively for The Australian, found opposition to the carbon tax fell from 59 per cent to 53 per cent amid a government advertising campaign.

This is the first major poll since the $15 billion package was announced that has shown any improvement for the Gillard government.

Voters still overwhelmingly oppose the tax, but a shift in sentiment among men and young people, who were previously the least impressed with it, has offered some hope to the besieged Prime Minister.

Labor’s electoral support and attitudes to Ms Gillard have lifted slightly from historically low levels in the past two weeks, but there is no real statistical improvement overall. Dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister’s performance remains unchanged at a record high. (source)

And now the unions are forming an unlikely alliance with big business in opposing the tax:

ONE of the nation’s biggest trade unions has turned on the Gillard government, savaging Workplace Relations Minister Chris Evans as incompetent and unworthy of his office.

Days after strident criticism of the government by business leaders, Transport Workers Union national secretary Tony Sheldon yesterday likened Senator Evans to a corpse, accusing him of failing to implement Labor policy and endangering the lives of truck drivers.

The condemnation, rejected by Senator Evans, came as a trio of senior ministers dismissed a claim by Suncorp chairman-elect Ziggy Switkowski that there was ” a whiff of illegitimacy” about the government.

While the government has anticipated attacks from businesses affected by the [carbon dioxide] tax, it was blind sided by Mr Sheldon’s assault, based on the fact the impost — which he on Friday called a “death tax” — will apply to the heavy transport industry from 2014.

Mr Sheldon, whose 90,000- member union represents truck drivers, wants the government to prevent trucking companies from passing the cost impact to drivers and owner-drivers. The TWU argues that passing on the costs to drivers will lift stress and drive up accident and fatality rates on roads, not just for truck drivers, but also for all motorists. (source)

It gets worse: Labor 39 – Coalition 61


We're not laughing…

Could it get any worse? Apparently, yes. It’s like watching an aged relative die a slow and painful death. The time has come for Labor backbenchers to put this government out of its misery, show that they still have some principles, and withdraw support.

It won’t happen of course, because they are all driven by petty self-interest rather than what is best for the country, but it’s a nice thought:

THE government has flatlined, personal support for Julia Gillard has plunged and Tony Abbott is by far the nation’s favoured leader, according to the first comprehensive national poll taken since the release of the carbon price policy.

After a week of fevered campaigning by both leaders, the Herald/Nielsen poll shows Labor’s primary vote has hit a new record low of 26 per cent while Mr Abbott has opened up an 11-percentage point lead on Ms Gillard as the preferred prime minister.

And despite the generous compensation package accompanying the carbon price, 53 per cent of voters feel they will be worse off.

Previous low levels of support for the policy have not changed, with 39 per cent backing the package and 52 per cent opposing it. More than half – 56 per cent – want a fresh election.

Although Ms Gillard had told the caucus not to expect any short-term rise in the polls after the release of the policy details, this poll was being watched closely by many MPs hoping for some positive response to the $15 billion compensation package.

The telephone poll of 1400 voters, taken from Thursday night to Saturday evening, shows Labor’s primary vote fell 1 point to 26 per cent since the last poll a month ago. The Coalition’s primary vote rose 2 points to 51 per cent, and the Greens fell 1 point to 11 per cent.

On a two-party-preferred basis, the Coalition leads by a thumping 61 per cent to 39 per cent, a 4-point rise in its lead in a month and an 11-point swing towards the opposition since the federal election in August.

While Labor’s vote stayed depressed, Ms Gillard’s personal rating plunged further and, for the first time, Mr Abbott is the preferred prime minister.

In the last poll, the Opposition Leader and Ms Gillard were tied at 46 per cent, but in this poll, Mr Abbott’s rating rose 5 points to 51 per cent while Ms Gillard’s fell 6 points to 40 per cent. (source)

Glenn Milne in The Australian analyses the fix Labor finds itself in:

The sullen rejection of the tax by ordinary voters, fed by the Opposition Leader’s furious onslaught and enabled by the government’s strategic blunder in announcing the tax without details, then leaving a political vacuum for months for the Coalition to fill, appears instead to have simply become embedded.

Gillard’s window of opportunity to dismantle Abbott’s campaign is fast closing, if it hasn’t already.

In a 24/7 media cycle attention has already begin to wane. By Saturday the carbon tax had been pushed off or down page one of the broadsheets. The tabloids had abandoned it. What dominated was Westpac’s prediction the next official interest rate move could be a cut. It’s now hard to see how Gillard re-engages on the issue, how she gets the interest back of voters who have already emphatically rejected the tax.

Ironically the interest rate story is probably a clue to her problems. In light of the threatened GFC aftershock in Europe and the US, which has helped drive a collapse in consumer confidence here, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that what the electorate wants is a government that will get our two-speed economy back on track. Instead Gillard’s solution is to load them up with a new tax.

One of the most important push factors behind this sentiment, surely, is the fact that even with this carbon tax Australia’s overall emissions won’t be reduced.

And that’s not even to go to the argument that our paltry contribution to cutting greenhouse gasses will still be overwhelmed by the unrestrained belching of the major emitters, the US, China and India.

Voters assess something is amiss here, leading to Abbott’s killer line last week: “What’s the point?” (source)

Read it all.

Poll: 60% oppose the carbon [dioxide] tax


Online poll result

In the first poll to be taken after Julia Gillard’s announcement of the carbon [dioxide] tax on Sunday, the message is clear:

AUSTRALIANS have given the carbon tax the thumbs down, with 68 per cent saying it will leave them worse off and 63 per cent calling for Julia Gillard to bring on an early election.

The exclusive Galaxy Poll for the Herald Sun – the first major survey since the release of the carbon tax package on Sunday – also found 60 per cent of voters opposed the tax, 29 per cent were in favour and 11 per cent undecided.

The nationwide telephone poll of 500 people conducted on Monday night suggests voters believe the personal cost of the carbon tax outweighs the environmental benefits. [When the environmental benefits are nil, any cost, no matter how small, outweighs them - Ed]

Voters have not accepted Ms Gillard’s promise that more than six out of 10 households would be fully compensated or better off after compensation for the rise in the cost of living.

Only 10 per cent of voters said they would be better off and only 28 per cent believe Ms Gillard has a mandate to introduce the tax without holding another election.

The poll reveals 62 per cent of people think the Greens, who negotiated the package with Labor and the independents, have too much influence over the Government, while 30 per cent say the Greens are working effectively.

It finds 81 per cent believe the carbon tax will have little or no impact on the environment and 67 per cent believe it will be bad for the economy compared with 22 per cent who think it will be good. (source)

What do the other 19% think the carbon tax will do, I wonder? And another online poll shows much the same (see image).

Labor are heading for a massive hiding at the next election, all because Gillard was so desperate to stay in power that she sold her soul and that of the party to the environmental extremists. The (Green) chickens are coming home to roost.

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