Garbage squared: Global warming to "kill a fifth of all lizards"

It is an ex-lizard, it has ceased to be

This is the kind of nonsense you get when you pile one computer model on top of another (hopeless) computer model. So our diligent researchers took the outputs from the IPCC’s models (which drastically overstate the climate sensitivity and hence response to CO2) which predict catastrophic warming, and plugged those numbers into an extinction model for lizards. So we have Garbage In, followed by Garbage Out, which becomes the next Garbage In and finally Garbage Out again. In other words, we have “garbage squared”.

Global warming could kill off as many as a fifth of the world’s lizards by 2080, with potentially devastating consequences for ecosystems around the world, according to a new study.

Researchers who conducted a major survey of lizard populations worldwide, which appears today in the journal Science, say lizards appear to be especially sensitive to the effects of climate change and are dying off at an alarming rate.

The loss of the lizard populations could wreak havoc with ecosystems in which they are a crucial part of the food chain, since they are important prey for many birds, snakes, and voracious predators of insects.

The biologists in the study ruled out factors other than global warming as being responsible for the rapid decrease in the lizard population.

“We did a lot of work on the ground to validate the model and show that the extinctions are the result of climate change,” says Dr Barry Sinervo, professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of California at Santa Cruz.

“None of these are due to habitat loss. These sites are not disturbed in any way, and most of them are in national parks or other protected areas,” he says.

The scientists worked up models based on predicted probabilities of local extinction showing the likelihood of species extinction was estimated to be 6% by 2050 and 20% by 2080.

Read it here.