Liberals easily retain Bradfield and Higgins

And the only reason there was a swing to the Greens was, er, no ALP. So the predictions of voter anger over the blocking of the ETS don’t seem to have materialised. Perhaps the voters actually quite liked it?

UPDATE: In fact there was virtually no swing. As Andrew Bolt reports:

What an astonishing triumph for new Liberal leader and warming sceptic Tony Abbott. There was actually a swing to the Liberals – from last election’s 57.04 per cent of the two-party preferred vote to 57.57 per cent this time – despite:

  • A campaign dominated by the media coverage of the bitter rifts and leadership turmoil in the Liberal Party.
  • The retirment of a very popular local member in Peter Costello
  • Furious media promotion of the by-election as a referendum on the leadership of Tony Abbott, widely portrayed as a “Mad Monk” and warming denialist.
  • The imposition on voters of an unnecessary by-election, which in Jeff Kennett’s case in nearby Burwood saw the state Liberals actually lose a safe seat.
  • The selection by the Liberals of a low-profile candidate in Kelly O’Dwyer, against the high-profile Green in Clive Hamilton.
  • Blanket coverage for the Greens by the ABC in particular.
  • A media soundtrack of increasingly hysterical warnings about warming doom, including dying penguins at Phillip Island, cannibalising polar bears and record heat waves in Australia.
  • An accidental win of the leadership by Abbott by just one vote.
  • Immediate public criticism of his new policies by his defeated rival, Malcolm Turnbull.
  • Universal predictions by commentators and psephologists that the Liberals would take a hit, or even lose.

And the ABC’s headline this morning makes me laugh: Liberals escape voter backlash (source). The media predict something ridiculous, then when it doesn’t happen, the Libs have “escaped”.


  1. Well said Simon…as usual you are first off the blocks with your comment..appreciate your efforts to keep us all informed….Gary

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