Merry Christmas: polar bears "not endangered"

24 December, 2010 by

Party on, dudes

But, but, but… polar bears are the poster child of global warming, er, climate change, er, global climate disruption, or something, aren’t they? They’re the canary in the coal mine for the planet aren’t they? Here’s the national, taxpayer funded broadcaster, the ABC, just a few days ago:

A recent study that suggests there is still a slim chance to save the animals from global warming.

Researchers say the polar bear population this year appears to be in even worse shape than last year.

…

Researchers have predicted that by the year 2050, only a third of the world’s 22,000 polar bears might be left. (source)

And here’s the über-alarmist Sydney Morning Herald, also just a few days ago:

Climate change is pushing Arctic mammals to mate with cousin species, in a trend that could be pushing the polar bear and other iconic animals towards extinction, biologists said.

“Rapidly melting Arctic sea ice imperils species through interbreeding as well as through habitat loss,” they said in a commentary appearing in the British science journal Nature.

“As more isolated populations and species come into contact, they will mate, hybrids will form, and rare species are likely to go extinct.” (source)

If your sources of news consisted solely of the ABC and the Fairfax press, which they do for many in Australia, you would be forgiven for thinking that polar bears are in dire risk of extinction, because of your evil SUV and your incandescent light bulbs, right? At least Barack Obama has made one sensible decision in his disastrous presidency (strangely not reported by either the SMH or the ABC):

The Obama administration is sticking with a George W. Bush-era decision to deny polar bears endangered species status.

In a court filing Wednesday, the Fish and Wildlife Service defended the previous administration’s decision to give the polar bear the less-protective “threatened” species designation, a move that will frustrate environmentalists [Excellent news! I just love frustrated environmentalists! – Ed] who hoped for stronger protections under the Endangered Species Act.

FWS Director Rowan Gould said the 2008 “threatened” listing was made “following careful analysis of the best scientific information, as required by the ESA.” [Pity they can’t employ the same rigour with climate science – Ed]

Listing the polar bear as “endangered” as a result of global warming could open the door to using the Endangered Species Act to regulate greenhouse gases, an outcome the Obama administration has opposed. (source)

Odd last comment, since the Obama administration clearly doesn’t seem to mind the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulating greenhouse gases without congressional approval…

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UK/Australian seasonal forecasts: FAIL

23 December, 2010 by

Verdict on Met Office and BoM

Both the UK Met Office and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are strapped in tight to the global warming rollercoaster. Their models staunchly ignore or play down any natural effects on the climate, and artificially enhance the effects of CO2 in order to prop up the pre-conceived alarmist agenda. As a result, their seasonal forecasts generally point towards warmer conditions [despite the fact that now there are freezing conditions in the UK, the alarmists are happy to bleat that such conditions are “consistent with global warming” – nobody in the MSM seems to bat an eyelid at the howling inconsistency there – why didn’t the models predict harsher winters? – Ed]. It really doesn’t matter how many teraflops your multi-million-pound supercomputer can crunch through – if the models suck, it’s still Garbage In, Garbage Out.

The result of all this is particularly obvious in the UK right now, where the government, relying on such skewed forecasts, failed to adequately prepare the country for the heavy snowfalls and freezing conditions it has endured over the past week or so. The Met Office is suffering from a case of sudden short-term amnesia, as it claims that it never forecast milder conditions. Unfortunately, highly recommended UK blog Autonomous Mind has a longer memory, and posts a chart showing precisely that:

click to enlarge

The post also links to an article from October in the UK Daily Express, in which an independent forecaster challenges the Met Office’s prediction:

Positive Weather Solutions senior forecaster Jonathan Powell said: “It baffles me how the Met Office can predict a milder-than-average winter when all the indicators show this winter will have parallels to the last one.

“They are standing alone here, as ourselves and other independent forecasters are all predicting a colder-than-average winter.

“It will be interesting to see how predictions by the government-funded Met Office compare with independent forecasters.” (source)

Interesting indeed. Epic FAIL for the Met Office.

Now onto the BoM, which, as Jo Nova points out, has hit the jackpot with a trifecta of duff predictions, which are no doubt a result of models which are skewed towards the global warming narrative:

For this spring the Australian BOM predicted it would be dry and warm, instead we got very wet and quite cold.  The models are so bad on a regional basis, it’s uncannily like they are almost useful… if they call things “dry”, expect “wet”.

On August 24 the Australian BoM had pretty much no idea that any unusual wetness was headed their way. Toss a coin, 50:50, yes or no. Spring 2010 was going to be “average”, except in SW Western Australia where they claimed “a wetter than normal spring is favoured.” What follows were 100 year floods, or at least above average rain to nearly every part of the nation bar the part that was supposed to be getting more rainfall. In the chart below, all shades of “blue” got above average rainfall. The dark blue? That’s the highest rainfall on record.

Spring rainfall - click to enlarge

On August 24 the BOM predicted that spring would be “hot across the north”. Instead it was cold everywhere except in the west of WA.

Max spring temperatures - click to enlarge

Epic FAIL for the Australian BoM.

It seems that we can now rely only on those forecasters who are independent of any government-linked body. The virus of AGW alarmism has spread so far in Western governments and their agencies that they can no longer be trusted to produce unbiased forecasts, and the results of blinkered reliance on such forecasts is plain to see in the UK and Europe.

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More green waste – Gillard's "Green Start" scrapped

22 December, 2010 by

Governments need plenty of these...

Because wasting taxpayers’ money and axing jobs is just fine, so long as we’re “saving the planet.” Of course, if we trace the logic back, green loan schemes such as this are theoretically needed to encourage people to invest in energy saving measures, which are necessary to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, which are the source of greenhouse gases, which are the cause of “dangerous global warming”… or so states the IPCC.

The Gillard government uncritically swallows everything the IPCC says, and shuts its eyes and ears to any dissenting views. It also blindly relies on various compromised government advisers, including ACM favourite Will Steffen, who has been in good form recently, mudslinging, spouting propaganda and smearing deniers. But why wouldn’t he? The entire careers of climate scientists the world over, including Steffen, is paved with gold from the AGW hysteria they themselves help to create, so even if they had any doubts, why would they dare reveal them in public and thereby help kill the golden goose?

But what does the government find? Tragically, it’s not the green utopia that Bob Brown and his cronies keep promising, but the unacceptable costs of spruiking a green agenda in the face of harsh economic reality.

So it’s little surprise that yet another “green” scheme collapses in a heap, following close on the heels of the home insulation (pink batts), solar rebates and Green Loans debacles, and all of it can be traced back to the spin and misrepresentations of the IPCC:

EIGHT months after the Federal Government axed its disastrous home insulation scheme, it announced yesterday it would also stop its “Green Start” program because there were too many “risks” involved.

The axing of the environmental scheme just days from Christmas means that, within weeks, thousands of people will be without work.

Labelled a “disaster” by the Federal Opposition, the Government’s original Green Loans program was yesterday slammed as a “disgrace and a sinful waste of money” by one NSW assessor.

The multi-million-dollar scheme was supposed to provide 360,000 households with energy-efficiency checks and access to interest-free loans of up to $10,000 for environmental improvements such as solar panels and insulation.

Following criticism of the administration of the scheme, the Government announced in July the Green Loans program would be replaced by a Green Start program, to be delivered in two rounds.

But Climate Change Minister Greg Combet yesterday announced the Government would dump Green Start, forcing nearly 10,000 accredited and uncontracted assessors – 4635 in NSW – to find alternative work. (source)

Who cares? It’s all well intentioned. What’s a few jobs and a few million dollars between friends compared to the future of the entire planet?

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Snow in summer – Sydney Morning Herald blames "climate change"

21 December, 2010 by

10cm of global warming fell in NSW yesterday

I hope to do the occasional post over the next few weeks, as time permits, and I couldn’t resist this one. From the Weather Isn’t Climate (Except When We Say It Is) Department…

Once again, we have to ask the simple question: to a climate alarmist, what weather phenomenon would not be a sign of “climate change”? Warmer temperatures? Obviously not – it’s global warming, stupid. Colder temperatures. No, because climate change creates more “extremes” (apparently, when it suits their cause – like today). More rain? No, because one of our models predicted more rain. Less rain? No, because a different model predicted less rain as well. We could go on (and on, and on). The answer is, that there is nothing that isn’t a sign of climate change. Everything and everything is “consistent with it”.

So when snow fell in the New South Wales mountains yesterday, at the height of the southern hemisphere summer, the Moonbat Herald blames climate change in the first sentence of its report this morning:

AS CLIMATE change tips the planet inextricably towards a more complicated future the weather already presents as downright confusing. (source)

So the question for the warmists is this: what weather conditions would not indicate “climate change”? This needs an answer, because at the moment, if everything is a sign of climate change, the flip side of that same argument is that nothing is.

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ACM to return in 2011

19 December, 2010 by

ACM: more comebacks than Ol' Blue Eyes...

Just a short post to let you know that ACM will return to blogging in 2011. The other projects that were taking my attention will be completed sooner than expected, and I am pleased to say that after a few weeks R & R, regular blogging will resume next year, probably late January or early February, with hopefully a few posts between now and then. Thanks to you all for your patience.

It will be fascinating year, as we watch the flimsy Labor/ Green alliance tear itself apart over the issue of climate change, which it almost certainly will – and I want to be in the front row.

Simon

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