ABC: climate models predict "more of whatever we've just had"

Climate astrology

There’s an old scientific saying: “The wonderful thing about standards is that there are so many to choose from.” This could equally be applied to climate models. There’s also an old weather forecasting technique: look at the weather today, and that’s a pretty good indication of what the weather will be tomorrow. It’s actually more accurate than most forecast models, in any case!

The ABC, fully into “Groupthink Mode”, finds a scientist who just happens to say that we’re going to have more of whatever we had last week (that’s because given enough scientists, they will eventually predict everything, so you can choose exactly what you like). So if we have a cyclone, they’ll find a scientist to say climate change will cause more cyclones. If we have a drought, they’ll find a scientist to say climate change will cause more drought. More rain, higher temperatures, lower temperatures, you name it, the ABC will drag up a scientist to say we’re going to have more of whatever we’ve just had. But instead of treating it like the joke it is, the ABC takes the whole thing with a reverential solemnity:

While Queenslanders deal with a summer of natural disasters, climate scientists are warning that Australia faces a future of more frequent extreme weather events.

The Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry is scrutinising the preparation and response to the 2011 floods, but planners are already looking ahead to minimise the loss of the past.

According to new modelling, Australia can expect 25 per cent more rain than was seen in the Queensland floods by the end of this century, as well as larger, more frequent storms.

“The modelling that’s been done by CLIM Systems in New Zealand has shown that in 2100 there could be a 25 per cent increase in rainfall,” sustainability consultant Stella Whittaker said.

“Now what that means is that the large storms which we currently describe as one-in-100-year storms, they are going to be more likely and it really means that people can see this type of event happening more than once in their lifetime.” (source)

Just like the old weather forecasters looking out of the window and writing tomorrow’s forecast, now climate modellers can look at whatever disaster we had last week and miraculously come up with a model to predict more of them due to “climate change”. They should have a look out of the window in Sydney today – maybe they could develop a model that predicts that climate change will cause more dull, overcast and drizzly weather – then I would feel like I was back home in London…


  1. And even though nearly every severe event is matched by a bigger one in the past they add ‘unprecedented’ anyway. Journalism has reached the sewer when even language is corrupted

  2. Ah, but this is “new modelling”, which implies that the “old modelling” is broken.

  3. My favourite saying, Lies, Lies and Scientists say.. works for me..

  4. The Loaded Dog says:

    According to new modelling, Australia can expect 25 per cent more rain than was seen in the Queensland floods by the end of this century, as well as larger, more frequent storms.

    Err, I’m confused. Please help…

    Given the above prophesy, maybe someone would be kind enough to explain to me why we desperately needed to spend millions on desalination plants?

    I was sure the sages prophesied a short time ago that drought was the new norm.

    Such a complex and confusing religion; I just can’t get seem to get my head around it.

    Am I missing something?

    • We just haven’t quite got the balance right yet. We need to operate the coal fired power stations at just the right level of generation so the drought caused by the greenhouse gases is just cancelled out by the rain bringing la nina. That way all our dams can be held at just the right level, without having to operate the desal plants.

  5. Climate Change is chaotic, in North America, the CONUS has been below the 30 year avg in temperature for months, at times this winter, 49/50 states had recorded snowfall, only FL escaped. When people say that the North East US will become sub-tropical in a few years, even though I think it would be great, the fact that my position at 43.19deg N and 77.52 deg W will likely never become sub-tropical. Global Warming/Climate Change is a money grab for rich owners of Cap & Trade companies, it will raise the price of everything and cause a global depression.

  6. Well what ever the models say we better get used to it because it would seem that the increase in China’s emissions is twice what Australia emits in a whole year.
    But uncle Ross says we have got to save the world.

  7. Good thing I wasn’t drinking coffee when I read that title. Outstanding.

  8. @Chris it will be a money grab only if agents of change do not regroup and deploy the existing yet unavailable technologies & scenarios that costs less and pollute no more.
    One example of a scenario that will reduce the weather impact is Project Seanergy. It will replace fossil fuel in the Arctic (melting the icecaps thus increasing heat in the zone) with local cheaper renewable energy slowing down the icecaps melting.
    Did you know that your present weather is caused by the fact that the air temperature in the Arctic are up to 12 degrees warmer than usual.

    Basically humans’ laid back attitude equates to: We have let them put a “heater in our freezer”

  9. The Loaded Dog says:

    Basically humans’ laid back attitude equates to: We have let them put a “heater in our freezer”

    Heater in the freezer huh?

    Just when exactly did we switch that “heater” on?

    THINK about it now……

  10. Bob in Castlemaine says:

    As the saying goes, put enough monkeys in a room with typewriters and they’ll produce Shakespeare. Likewise enough government funded climate models and they’ll “predict” the weather we’ve just had. Of course we then get the straight faced, “we told you so”. Much like the ABC really.

    • Well said, I could not agree more. Poor climate change scientists have no real life skills so they would just be on dole otherwise. Whats a few billion dollars to get them off our backs and busy in the labs. Oh, hold on there are no labs its all just computer models on faulty data. Not easy being a modeller, I had trains once. I think I’ll cross change and be a climate scientist..

  11. It IS the money grab and the spin to cover it up that has prevented sustainable technologies from coming on line. Instead all the attention has gone to ‘natural’ gas propaganda.
    AGW is the current spin to distract the majority away from the real peril of rampant mining.
    Global warming/climate change is 100% natural. It is still impossible to tell what % of the recent warming is due to us. And it MUST be a small % because the recent warming is nothing out of the ordinary. This is where the lies fall apart, because the empirical evidence is absolutely plain to see. The Holocene age is a rare relatively stable warm time and only because of this has human civilization been allowed to exist. And now we are expected to believe that what has been a gift to us is our enemy. And believe absurd nonsensical shit like ‘climate change denial’.


  1. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Garth Godsman and spot_the_dog, Simon from Sydney. Simon from Sydney said: ABC: climate models predict “more of whatever we’ve just had”: There’s an old scientific saying: “The wonderful … […]

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