NSW result sends strong message to Canberra

NSW has sent Canberra a message

There really are Federal Labor MPs who are delusional enough to believe that Saturday’s election result in New South Wales had nothing to do with them.  Admittedly, NSW Labor was a total shambles, and had lost all credibility with the electorate. But despite this, some of the swings were nothing short of astonishing. Barry O’Farrell made the carbon tax an issue in NSW, and the electorate responded. Gillard et al will ignore this signal at their peril:

ANY Federal Labor MP who doesn’t think the thumping NSW election result has implications for Julia Gillard is kidding themselves.

Gillard’s strategy of demonising the Liberal Party as a bunch of loonies who don’t believe in climate change has been hit for six.

Barry O’Farrell is a moderate Liberal who has just given the anti-carbon tax campaign credibility.

People in NSW will look to their new Premier and realise that being concerned about the carbon tax does not put them in the wing-nut membership of the Far Right.

It has just become harder, not easier, for Gillard to run the line that the Liberal Party has been taken over by extremists.

At a more basic level, the destruction of the NSW ALP presents significant structural problems for Gillard.

And the independents in Canberra are also waking up to a new paradigm this morning:

The most significant and more immediate issue that Gillard faces, however, is the future of the federal NSW independents.

The independents have been delivered a body blow.

Rob Oakeshott is already erratic and is likely to become more so in light of what was a resounding rejection of both his and Tony Windsor’s deal to support Labor federally.

The impact on the psychology of the independents will be critical to the future of the Gillard Government.

Windsor may be unmoved by the result but Oakeshott must now know he is facing his own political oblivion.

Labor MPs today are now pondering not just if but when Oakeshott realises that sticking to the current deal will be the end of his political future. (source)

Fun times. Also read Tim Blair here.


  1. The Loaded Dog says:

    Gillard et al will ignore this signal at their peril:

    Prediction:- They will ignore it, and dismiss it.

    RMS Federal Labor under the command of Captain Gillard is headed straight for the “Carbon Tax” iceberg.

    • Hmmm… I’m not sure whether the better analogy isn’t either the “U.S.S. Caine” or the “Marie Celeste“. However, they have already hit that iceberg. That was the wrenching sound you heard on Saturday night, and the ship is now taking on water. Watch now for the scene where that big old arse pitches up into the air and it sinks to the bottom like a stone.

  2. The Loaded Dog says:

    Prediction fulfilled…

    Denying the proposed carbon tax had any impact on Labor’s rout in New South Wales, Prime Minister Julia Gillard said the independents were victims of the massive swing to the Coalition.

    “New South Wales voters had made up their minds a long time ago,” she said.


  3. Indeed – as the pale-faced defeatist on ABC showed, these are people who have never voted anything but Labor in their entire life.

    And like anything, once you try it, chances are you’re going to do it again sometime.

    Like in the next Federal election.

    The only thing Abbott and the Fed Libs need to do is to keep the fires burning. Some may feel like they have expunged their anger on the state party. The anger needs to carry on for years yet. But actually introducing the tax will fire up the anger again.

    The question is really whether any Federal Labor MPs will make a move to end this nonsense. And by make a move, I mean quit the party and announce an intention to run as an independent and reject the carbon tax. If you were a Federal member sitting on top of a state seat that just swung 25% to the opposition, you’d have to at least consider the prospect.

    • You are right brc, to await some move by an ALP backbencher, but the most likely one right now is a demand for equal treatment to the independents. The gutlessness showed by the entire caucus, but psrticularly those in Cabinet, during the rudd years has to be grating on some of them, and instead of being political suicide it could be a successful gutsy move, or at worst just advancing the inevitable.

      The situation now, where an entire party has to carry a handful of princesses and swallow their own interests, simply can’t last. Surely Martin Ferguson isn’t the only Labor MP with the commonsense to reject the global warming nonsense. There must be a backbencher out there who can work out that this particular empress has no clothes.

  4. Oh yes the Federal Government is totally denying that the Carbon Tax has anything to do with it, Windsor is also denying that in his electorate it wasn’t because of him that the people turned away from the Independents, nobody has heard from Oakshott as yet. But we all know and there is no denying anything when the facts are in your face.

    What a great outcome for the people of NSW, democracy in action, good on all of you for getting rid of a bad lot in the NSW Labor. There was change in WA, then Victoria now NSW, lets hope it keeps on going, hopeful QLD next (my State) also a bad lot in there at the moment I feel.

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