Labor slips further as economy falters

Labor or the economy? Both.

Labor’s support has slumped to its lowest support since 1942, according to a Roy Morgan poll taken after the announcement of the carbon [dioxide] tax:

In the first Australia-wide voting intention poll conducted since Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced the details of the Carbon Tax the latest telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights, July 13/14, 2011 shows the L-NP 60.5% with a record winning lead over the ALP 39.5% – the worst Two-Party preferred voting result for Labor since the first Roy Morgan Gallup Poll conducted in May 1942.

The L-NP primary vote is 52.5%, nearly double the ALP 27.5%. Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 10.5% and Others/ Independents 9.5%.

If a Federal election were held today the L-NP would win in a landslide according to today’s Morgan Poll. (source – h/t Bolta)

Christopher Pearson believes Labor’s end is in sight:

Niki Savva predicted in her column in The Australian some weeks back that it was only when people started to feel sorry for Julia Gillard we’d know her political career was irretrievable.

Her press club performance on Thursday may have been that point. We saw Julia the tearful recalling the shy, reserved girl at Unley High who always held back, who had difficulty dealing with emotion and engaging with people, who was content to work hard, get through university and join Slater & Gordon’s law firm.

The Canberra press gallery is almost the only group still slightly besotted with her, but this was a bit much even for some of them to swallow. There were also signs of restiveness when, pressed on her view of local journalistic standards in the carbon debate, she advised her audience not to “write crap. It can’t be that hard.”

My guess is that in time historians will find she and her government were the beneficiaries of more hysterical rubbish from the press gallery on the subject of anthropogenic global warming than any leader of a major party in recent years. Yet there she was, reproaching them for insufficient commitment to groupthink. (source)

As I posted here earlier in the week, the global economy ain’t exactly in great shape. The US is up to its neck in debt, as is the EU, with countries lining up for handouts. It wouldn’t take much of a shove to send the world spiralling into a second GFC, which makes it even more ludicrous for Labor to force through an economy-wrecking carbon [dioxide] tax that will do nothing for the climate:

ONE of the nation’s big four banks expects the Reserve Bank will soon slash interest rates, while some of Australia’s most prominent businessmen have warned that the European debt crisis and struggling Australian households are slamming the economy into reverse.

As Julia Gillard attempts to sell a sceptical public the carbon tax, which she acknowledges represents a massive economic transition, business leaders are warning that the carbon tax debate is about to be overwhelmed by international events they fear could spark a second global financial crisis.

Westpac economist Bill Evans yesterday reversed the bank’s long-held view that the next move in interest rates would be up, saying things had turned so bad so quickly that rates could be slashed over the next 12 months by 100 basis points. If passed on in full, this would slash the current standard variable home rate of about 7.8 per cent to 6.8 per cent.

He also warned that unemployment was set to jump next year, possibly as high as 5.75 per cent, from 4.9 per cent now.

The threat of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe was expected to lead to an “extended period of financial market turmoil”, Mr Evans said. (source)

Any sane person would conclude that the introduction of a carbon [dioxide] tax at this time of turmoil is suicidal. But not the Labor/Green alliance. For them it is a dangerous and highly damaging political crusade, with Bob Brown and the extremist Greens in the driving seat and Labor as complicit and powerless passengers.

UPDATE: More here from Paul Kelly in The Australian.


  1. Now that’s not an act, that’s a fact

  2. Robert of Ottawa says:

    I continue to take every opportunity to tell Aussies (I love the place and the people) that you only have to turn ONE Labour marginal or one of those inexplicably suicidal Indies, and ther must be an election and it is GAME OVER.

    This is important as it will be a message to other stupid politicos around the world.

  3. I’m amazed how economic literacy, or at least awareness, has apparently now gone “mainstream.” Only a few years ago, prior to the first so-called global financial crisis, there were but a handful of people talking about the world’s (particularly the US) financial problems, and even fewer listening.

    I remember mentioning it to some people at work and nearly everyone dismissed my opinions as “far out there.” What a shock it was for them!

    I now find myself in a similar position regarding CO2 emissions.

    It some ways, this might seem like a positive omen, but considering how little was achieved to correct our financial mistakes in the last few years, I suspect we’ll make even less progress correcting the errors in climate science and resulting policy in the future.

    Call me a cynic!

  4. Baldrick says:

    Whether we like it or not, the fact is Australia is part of the world financial and economic system. If countries like Greece and Italy default on their loans and the USA cannot raise enough capital to pay its bills then the effects will most certainly be felt in Australia.
    The return of the Global Financial Crisis is a reality and has many economists and governments worried. Trouble is, since coming to power, the Labor/Green/Independent alliance has squandered the surplus left over from the Howard era and spent more ontop of that to the point where Australia is now running a debt of more than $70 billion. There will be no more stimulus spending, we no longer have the money.
    Add to this the impost of a carbon dioxide tax on our economy that will increase costs across the board and make our manufacturers uncompetitive. We should be saving for times like this so we can ease any impact of any downturn in global fiscal tightening – but instead we’re spending more than we earn and now we’re going to shackle ourselves to a tax that can only spell disaster for our economy.
    Even if you believed the hype of man-made global warming, now is not the time to embrace eco-socialist policies from the ‘non-breeder’ Bob Brown and his lunatic left comrades. Viva la revolution!

  5. The Loaded Dog says:

    Labor slips further?

    For heavens sake will someone put them out of our misery?

    • Why the rush?
      To paraphrase Paul Keating, these clueless idiots need to be “done slowly”. Only then will people fully appreciate the complete insanity of what they are proposing to do, and it will allow time for all of the guilty parties to be fully identified and labelled.

      Both of these are important. If these numb nuts are put out of our misery too soon, it will be a case of “we almost had it – we were frustrated by the GFC2 (or whatever) — next time we will succeed.” Secondly, the guilty parties need to be given every opportunity to make even more outrageous statements such that when the class action is taken against them for the damage that they have caused or contributed to, there won’t be a public outcry when their property is seized and sold to make restitution. Yeah, baby! Bring that one on!

  6. I cannot imagine how with the current global financial problems and the current state of this countries debt should any consideration be given to introducing ANY tax especially while we have the two speed economy and a very low confidence level.
    With that said, I also find it very hard to believe Labor spin that literally every economist supports the implementation of the “Carbon Dioxide” Tax now, it would be incredibly niave to ask why weren’t a range of questions part of the Chapman Survey.
    The current global situation demands we monitor very carefully with what we do in this country, this in itself shows that pushing ahead with legislating the Tax shows complete contempt for any considerations. Also, Swan has continually claimed credit for a GFC success story but I do not want him believing he has the answers with very different starting circumstances in place, Swan’s failure to acknowledge anything different worries the “cripe” out of me and my family.

  7. Peter A. says:

    ‘…shy, reserved girl at Unley High who always held back, who had difficulty dealing with emotion and engaging with people…’

    This is obviously another lie, one told to gain sympathy. People who are naturally shy and reserved simply don’t enter politics; politics requires gregariousness, extroversion and a high sense of self-worth. Honesty, on the other hand, seems to be optional.

  8. I still think that it is up to Tony Abbott to offer a few, say 5, labour marginal seat members the opportunity of not being opposed at the next election if they cross the floor now and bring on that election.

    It is the only thing that could even keep a small core of Labor in the house when the election comes. If they think anything about their own party they will do it now to help Labour exist for another decade.

    We do need a strong opposition, and there won’t be any if Labor slide further down the toilet.

  9. David Davidovics says:

    Is there such a thing as a recall election in Australia?

    I know it can be done in Canada and the USA, as well as other western developed countries. I’m not sure if there would be enough time, but if say, just one labour or independent that currently supports the carbon dioxide tax were to be unseated, the house of cards would fall down and a general election would have to be called. There would also be no need for Abbott to reach out to labour back benchers either.

  10. Take note Julia. Australia does not want this tax.

  11. I have got no time for this climate change/carbon tax nonsense, but, if labor is voted out we are really left with the mad Abbott. It leaves very little room to move!

    • OK, I’ll bite. Why the “mad Abbott”? What would TA do that’s so mad? Let’s hear some specifics that are so apparently so abhorrent. Reduce taxation, perhaps? Lower the interference of government in our daily lives? Strengthen the economy? Abandon the carbon tax? Cut government waste? Axe pointless spending like NBN, Pink Batts, BER etc etc? Not looking too bad so far…

      • Exactly Simon. Greg shouldn’t brand anyone as being mad without providing some very good reason that can be verified and backed up.

        This is the usual mud slinging and smearing we see all the time from Green and Labor stalwarts who just cannot face the truth.

        What we do see from Julia is a character not unlike Captain Queeg in The Caine Mutiny. In both cases they think they are doing the right thing whilst everyone else can see that such a course will sink the ship or the country.

        When Julia is relieved of her command will Greg tell us if he will then change allegiance to the new Labor leader and condemn Julia in the same way the Kevin Rudd is now blackened?

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