Trenberth's missing heat found – it's hiding in the "uncertainties"

"Hey, where's my heat? Has anyone seen my heat?"

Phew. The Cause is back on track. A new study has “found” Kevin Trenberth’s missing ocean heat:

“When we looked at the results of previous work suggesting inconsistencies, we found that it hadn’t factored in the considerable uncertainties between systems used to record the measurements.”

Loeb’s team conducted a new analysis of data captured between 2001 and 2010 of global satellite data collected daily by CERES satellite-based instruments, as well as upper ocean temperature measurements taken by expendable bathythermographs and more recently Argo floats.

They found that once these uncertainties had been factored in, along with considerable short-term variations known to result from temperature, cloud cover and humidity changes associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the measurements were found to be in broad agreement.

What’s the saying, if you torture the data enough it will confess? And ACM old favourite David Karoly is crowing:

University of Melbourne Professor of Meteorology David Karoly, who wasn’t part of the research team, says this study is a wonderful example of scientists checking the facts when things don’t add up.

It helps answer the concerns originally raised by climate scientist Dr Kevin Trenberth [from the National Center for Atmospheric Research] over the adequacy of observational systems to monitor the response of the climate system to increasing green house gases.” (source)

So the moral of the story is, if the data simply won’t agree with your rigid global warming narrative, just widen the error bars until they do.

Here’s the abstract.


  1. LOL!

  2. Fishy Models

    The reliance on mathematical models has done tangible damage to our society in many ways. Bureaucrats who don’t understand the limitations of modeled predictions often use them. That was why the Bureau of Land Management allowed open-pit mines that, once abandoned, would eventually become “giant cups of poison.” Models act as convenient fig leaves for politicians, allowing them to put off needed actions on controversial issues. Fishery models provided the fig leaf for Canadian politicians to ignore the dying Grand Banks cod fishery. Agencies that depend upon project approvals for their very survival (such as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) can and frequently do find ways to adjust models to come up with correct answers that will ensure project funding. Most damaging of all is the unquestioning acceptance of the models by the public because they are assured that the modeled predictions are the state-of-the-art way to go.

    —Useless Arithmetic, Why Environmental Scientist Can’t Predict the Future, by Orrin H. Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis, Columbia University Press, 2007, p. xii.

  3. Lew Skannen says:

    “says this study is a wonderful example of scientists checking the facts when things don’t add up.”

    But he wasn’t crowing when they last checked the facts and the results did not add up to what he wanted…

    Now that they have bodged the answer they want what are the chances that they are going to continue looking through the data for more errors? Slim, I’d say.

  4. Lew.. they need to start looking at the whole concept of AGW for errors.. !!!

  5. hes off to antarctica next week with al gore and about 100 or so other alarmists. i wonder if they will need the icebreaker the aussies used in recent celebrations?

  6. Just like statistics, you can get the data to say anything you want it to.

  7. What do you expect from Trenberth, with idiotic statements like the key evidence for man caused warming is rising sea levels.

  8. Interesting that this week is the coldest it’s been globally for a decade. Trenberth will have another travesty.

  9. Trenberth is more likely to be having kittens than it being another travesty at there being ‘no explanation’ for the lack of warming.

  10. I suggest Trenberth is probably sitting permanently on a toilet.

  11. Sean McHugh says:

    But is he certain it’s in the uncertainties?

  12. I often have this problem. Because of a variable that nobody including myself knows, I’m absolutely correct all the time.

  13. Let me get this straight. The study didn’t provide the results they wanted, so they threw more variables into the mix until it came out the way they wanted? If the methodology and data were so bad that the study retained “considerable uncertainties,” then how do they know they got all of the mistakes out? Shouldn’t the paper have been retracted? How many “considerable uncertainties” does it take for a study to get retracted?

  14. Bruce of Newcastle says:

    Hmm, so its not hiding at the bottom of the ocean after all, its actually all around us…we just can’t feel it or measure it.

    I’m really starting to enjoy the excuses these people think up. Reminds me of small children.

  15. Kevin R. Lohse says:

    The whole quotation was,”torture numbers, and they’ll confess to anything”, attr. Gregg Easterbrook, the Hockey Stick Illusion, Ch2, Science.

  16. People like Trenberth are ignoring the existence of SURFACE TENSION. The reason that heat is missing is because of SURFACE TENSION. You can not transfer physical heat from the atmosphere into the ocean. That’s why their heat budgets don’t make sense. The only energy that gets into the ocean is carried by the rays of the sun which penetrate surface tension, no problem. It is for this reason that the climate is rigidly controlled by solar activity. If you find this hard to believe get a bucket of water filled to the brim and try heating the water with a heat gun. You will find that you need temperatures way above normal to overcome the surface tension. In practical terms you can’t heat water from above.

  17. gyptis444 says:

    Isn’t it wonderful! The computer models can be tweaked to match the observations……and vice-versa of course. Ahhhh the funding is now secure!

    And we continue to pay these clowns to play their computer games in academia!


  1. […] reports, Phew. The Cause is back on track. A new study has “found” Kevin Trenberth’s missing ocean […]

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