Quote of the Day: IPCC AR5 leak

Quote of the Day

UPDATE: The headbangers have all made up their minds too. Un-skeptical Pseudo-Science, the ABC, who wheel in a tame alarmist to hose the story down (see comment below).

From the It’s the Sun, stupid Department, a startling acknowledgement that the IPCC doesn’t know everything about the Sun’s effect on our climate (or the magnitude of such effects):

Many empirical relationships have been reported between GCR or cosmogenic isotope archives and some aspects of the climate system (e.g., Bond et al., 2001; Dengel et al., 2009; Ram and Stolz, 1999). The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link. We focus here on observed relationships between GCR and aerosol and cloud properties.

Delingpole writes on it here.

Download everything from AR5 if you so choose at WUWT.


  1. I wonder how long before this makes it into the lame stream media.
    Because it sounds a very technical and does not lend itself to a ten word sound bite I doubt it will catch on.
    In reality this is as significant as a prosecutor admitting that there were actually a couple of well known homicidal maniacs found loitering at a murder scene but he would like to gloss over that and keep trying to convict the guy who turned up later because … well … because we have put so much effort into framing him that it just wouldn’t do to exonerate him now…

  2. Amazing. Could reality be intruding ? I’m confident they will be back to their regular scamming in the summary for policy makers though.

  3. They still believe our solar system doesn’t move around the milky way and nothing effects us in the galaxy.
    That’s saying a lot about there science.

  4. Richard Abbott says:

    Re that leaked IPCC AR5 … from tonight’s Aunty ABC PM program….

    MARK COLVIN: ….Is this just a case of cherry-picking a sentence?

    STEVE SHERWOOD: Yeah, it’s a pretty severe case of that,….

    Well after all it is the cherry picking season…and there are plenty of cases at the greengrocers!

    Aunty’s interview….

  5. Meanwhile, back in the real world, away from the IPCC’s hand wringing scientists … global temperature anomalies still show a downward trend.

    But let’s not get the facts in the way of a good fractured fairy tale!

  6. From my reading of the first few pages of the SPM, there is much more to AR5 than to give a recognition to solar factors. For instance:-

    1. No admission of lack of a recent rise in the surface temperature record.
    2. But the lack of recent rise is accounted for by a step change in the warming in the Southern Oceans.
    3. AR4 got it wrong on decreasing precipitation in the tropics (which underlay Africagate), and they got it wrong on increasing hurricanes.
    4. Sea level rise is not accelerating. In fact the recent rise since 1993 is similar to the 1930-1950 period.
    5. Global ice melt is not accelerating. Himalayas do not even get a mention.
    6. AR4 massively overstated aerosols. The implication is that CO2 can no longer be shorthand for anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
    7. Medieval Warm Period gains more recognition than in AR4. However, recent studies will render AR5 out of date before it is even published.

  7. But Julia Gillard told the whole country that the science was “in”, the science was “settled”. Does this mean that our very own PM was wrong? Surely not…

    I guess it’s only a matter of time before some loony decides that the IPCC has been corrupted by Big Oil, and were paid to put this paragraph in their report.

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