UK: belief in climate change plummets

25 February, 2010 by

© Guardian

All change

A poll in the UK Guardian shows that belief in man-made global warming is disappearing faster than a Himalayan glacier, thanks to Climategate and daily revelations of IPCC blunders:

Public conviction about the threat of climate change has declined sharply after months of questions over the science and growing disillusionment with government action, a leading British poll has found.

The proportion of adults who believe climate change is “definitely” a reality dropped by 30% over the last year, from 44% to 31%, in the latest survey by Ipsos Mori.

Overall around nine out of 10 people questioned still appear to accept some degree of global warming. But the steep drop in those without doubts will raise fears that it will be harder to persuade the public to support actions to curb the problem, particularly higher prices for energy and other goods.

The true level of doubt is also probably underestimated because the poll only questioned 16 to 64-year-olds. People over 65 are more likely to be sceptical, the researchers [Because they have been around long enough to recognise a tax-grabbing scam when they see one – Ed].

“It’s going to be a hard sell to make people make changes to their [people’s] behaviours unless there’s something else in it for them – [such as] energy efficiency measures saving money on fuel bills,” said Edward Langley, Ipsos Mori’s head of environment research. “It’s a hard sell to tell people not to fly off for weekends away if you’re not wholly convinced by the links. Even people who are [convinced] still do it.”

Read it here.

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Labor in denial as ETS fairyland fractures

24 February, 2010 by

Climate sense

Apologies for the lack of posts today – other commitments. But this one is a must read, from Paul Kelly in The Australian:

The Rudd government is stranded without any apparent game plan on its most important first-term policy (outside its response to the global financial crisis). It is rare for a national government to face this predicament in its first term. Labor seems unable to abandon its ETS yet unable to champion its ETS; it cannot tolerate the ignominy of policy retreat yet cannot declare it will take its beliefs to a double-dissolution election; it remains pledged to its ETS yet cannot fathom how to make its ETS the law of the land. Such uncertainties are understandable, yet they are dangerously debilitating for any government. In such a rapidly shifting policy and political climate, even fallback positions risk being rendered obsolete. As Ridout says, the way forward is not clear.

In the interim, Labor’s response is to launch a furious series of spins, diversions and alternatives. The list is long: it will make health the main election issue; it will be brave enough to seek a double dissolution on the private health insurance rebate; criticism of its $250 million tax break for the television networks was just a Murdoch media conspiracy; and Tony Abbott is off the planet whenever he attacks the government.

Beneath such drum beating is a government whose world view on climate change is in eclipse and whose domestic political assumptions about climate change have been broken.

Read it here.

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Rudd government censured on climate change

23 February, 2010 by

A gesture only, but a symbolic one none the less:

The federal government has been censured by the Senate for failing to adequately deliver climate change programs.

The coalition and all seven cross-bench senators teamed up on Tuesday to reprimand Labor over its mismanagement of the home insulation, green loans and solar rebate schemes.

In moving the censure motion, Australian Greens leader Bob Brown said there had also been “gross and systemic failure” in the government’s renewable remote power generation program and renewable energy target.

“The use of the censure, I can assure senators, is not taken by me – after 24 years parliamentary experience – lightly at all,” he told parliament.

“However we are, as a nation, witnessing one of the most gross episodes of mishandling of the public money and the public trust in recent governments history.”

One of the very rare occasions where I agree with Bob Brown. But why is Peter “Big baldy ball-bag” Garrett still in his job, after one of the worst displays of ministerial incompetence in living memory?

Read it here.

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Great Barrier Reef: alive and well

23 February, 2010 by

Doing OK

The UK Telegraph reports that a study has shown the health of the GBR has been markedly improved by the emissions reductions policies implemented throughout the globe which have halted climate change… er, no, wait, a strict fishing ban:

The study has raised hopes that years of decline on the world’s biggest living organism can be reversed.

Australian researchers said their findings had proved “no-take” zones set up in 2004 to prohibit fishing have had a significant benefit.

“The results are actually quite impressive. Having a higher proportion of protected areas is good for marine life, it’s good for fish and it’s good for people who rely on the reef for a living,” said Laurence McCook, the lead author of the report by the Australian Research Centre’s Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority.

The study, published in the Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences, shows the zones have more and bigger fish, including sharks, and less damage to coral.

“That’s a very important result not only for the reef, because corals build the reef, but it’s also important for the tourism and fishing industries because fish rely on coral for their habitat,” said Mr McCook.

All good news then? Of course not. We couldn’t end without playing the “Climate Joker”:

However, he warned the reef was also facing a significant danger from climate change, which bleaches the coral and impedes its growth by raising the water’s temperature and acidity.

Phew, I was starting to worry there for a minute…

Read it here.

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ETS bill "delayed until May"

23 February, 2010 by

So “the greatest moral challenge since the start of the universe” (© KRudd) suddenly isn’t so urgent after all. But hang on… just a couple of months ago, it was essential we passed the ETS before Copenhagen, wasn’t it? Or is it because Rudd has no principles whatsoever and his only political compass is popularity, which he slavishly follows, so that now the ETS is proving an electoral liability, he’s looking for ways to quietly abandon both it and his robotic minister, Penny Wong? Hmm.

THE future of the government’s emissions trading scheme was in disarray last night with claims that the Senate vote on the bill could be delayed until May.

The possible delay, the result of the opposition blocking a procedural vote in the Senate, has cast fresh doubt on the government’s ability to create an election trigger on its amended climate legislation.

Last night the government was seeking legal advice about whether it could force an earlier vote than the May sitting. Each side blamed the other for the delay, which resulted from the Senate’s blocking a motion yesterday to speed up the debate.

The government has already dropped the emissions trading scheme from the parliamentary schedule this week to give priority to establishing a double dissolution election trigger on its changes to the private health insurance means test.

Read it here.

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UK Telegraph's hysterical alarmism

22 February, 2010 by

Still there?

The Telegraph is the home of those formidable sceptics Christopher Booker and James Delingpole. Unfortunately, it is also the home of some moonbat environmental reporters who will regurgitate any old rubbish that flops onto their desks. This is an example of the latter:

Climate change could be accelerated by ‘methane time bomb’

Climate change could be accelerated dramatically by rising levels of methane in the Earth’s atmosphere, scientists will warn today.

Atmospheric levels of the greenhouse gas, which is as much as 60 times more potent than carbon dioxide, appear to have risen significantly for the past three years running, scientists say.

Experts have long feared that vast amounts of the natural gas trapped in the frozen tundra of the Arctic could be unlocked as the permafrost is melted by rising temperatures, triggering a “methane time bomb” that could cause temperatures to soar.

More melting of the Arctic ice caused by accelerating warming would release further gases, setting off a “feedback” mechanism which could send climate change spinning out of control.

A brilliant example of irresponsible, hysterical, unfounded scaremongering, especially considering the final sentence:

Professor Nisbet told The Independent at the weekend that the new figures did not necessarily mark a departure from the trend. “It may just be a couple of years of high growth, and it may drop back to what it was,” he said.

Shame on the Telegraph for printing it.

Read it here.

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Sea-level rise paper withdrawn from journal

22 February, 2010 by

Pure science fiction

From The Science is Settled Department. The UK Guardian [staggers back in amazement – Ed] reports that scary predictions of sea-level rises in a Nature paper have been withdrawn, with the author admitting to “mistakes”:

Scientists have been forced to withdraw a study on projected sea level rise due to global warming after finding mistakes that undermined the findings.

The study, published in 2009 in Nature Geoscience, one of the top journals in its field, confirmed the conclusions of the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It used data over the last 22,000 years to predict that sea level would rise by between 7cm and 82cm by the end of the century.

At the time, Mark Siddall, from the Earth Sciences Department at the University of Bristol, said the study “strengthens the confidence with which one may interpret the IPCC results“. The IPCC said that sea level would probably rise by 18cm-59cm by 2100, though stressed this was based on incomplete information about ice sheet melting and that the true rise could be higher. [Isn’t it strange that they didn’t say “it could be lower” as well? Cynics may say that shows evidence of bias… – Ed]

Many scientists [alarmists – Ed] criticised the IPCC approach as too conservative, and several papers since have suggested that sea level could rise more [If you torture the data long enough, it will confess – Ed]. Martin Vermeer of the Helsinki University of Technology, Finland and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany published a study in December that projected a rise of 0.75m to 1.9m by 2100.

Siddall said that he did not know whether the retracted paper’s estimate of sea level rise was an overestimate or an underestimate. [But I bet we can guess which he hoped it was – Ed]

And then the poor chap does his best to put a brave face on it (three times):

  • “It’s one of those things that happens. People make mistakes and mistakes happen in science.”
  • “Retraction is a regular part of the publication process.”
  • “Science is a complicated game and there are set procedures in place that act as checks and balances.”

Read it here. (h/t Climate Change Fraud)

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SMH: valiantly plugging the warmist agenda

22 February, 2010 by

The Sydney Moonbat Herald will print any old rubbish as long as it supports their conclusion (formed years ago) that global warming is real and dangerous. In this case, they publish an article from AFP that fits the bill perfectly:

Tropical storms to be more intense

Tropical cyclones may become less frequent this century but pack a stronger punch as a result of global warming, a new study says.

The study published on Sunday is an overview of work into one of the scariest yet also one of the least understood aspects of climate change.

Known in the Atlantic as hurricanes and in eastern Asia as typhoons, tropical storms are driven by the raw fuel of warm seas, which raises the question about what may happen when temperatures rise as a result of greenhouse gases.

Tom Knutson and colleagues from the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) looked at peer-reviewed investigations that have appeared over the past four years, when the issue began to hit the headlines.

Their benchmark for warming is the “A1B” scenario, a middle-of-the-road computer simulation which predicts a global average surface temperature rise of 2.8 degrees Celsius over the 21st century.

“It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged,” says the paper.

But storms could have more powerful winds – an increase of between two and 11 per cent – and dump more water, it warns.

The SMH will love this of course, since it bolsters the IPCC’s position on hurricanes and cyclones. But it’s all based on model projections and speculation: may, likely, could. We already have 30 years of low-level warming since the late 1970s to use as an empirical test of change in cyclone energy, and what do we find (click for full size):

No change…

And that’s the point – we now regard the projections of climate models as being more “truthful” than empirical observations.

Read it here.

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OT: Rudd's own hockey stick

21 February, 2010 by

The graph actually shows the number of asylum seekers in immigration detention in Australia. The red spot shows the point where our glorious leader, Saint Kevin of Rudd, emasculated the previous Howard government’s policy. Boats are arriving on a daily basis. I wonder why? Is it because the word got out that Australia had overnight become a soft touch, and so you’re better off trying to get in there rather than anywhere else? At a time when global asylum seeker numbers are actually falling?

Global temperature… no, wait

Where’s the Medieval Warm Period again? Not even Phil Jones could fudge those figures (“hide the incline”)…

h/t: The Sheik

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Idiotic Comment of the Day: Martin Rees

21 February, 2010 by

Rees in Great Court, Trinity

“Lord” Rees is the President of the Royal Society, which used to be a highly respected scientific organisation, but which is now reduced to a hysterical advocacy group for global warming. This is demonstrated admirably by Rees, who tries to sweep the entire Climategate, Hurricanegate, every-other-kind-of-gate, under the rug with this one sentence:

‘My personal take is the key bit of evidence is the rise in CO2 concentration plus simple physics. If we had no data other than that, that would be enough.’

Phew, thanks for clearing that up. We can all go home now.

Read it here.

P.S. I am ashamed to say that Rees is currently Master of Trinity College, Cambridge, which is my old college. I cringe with embarrassment.

Filed Under: Climate
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