Day 3

The leak of the Danish draft is having serious ramifications, with developing countries comparing developed countries backing the deal to “Nazi appeasers”:

POOR nations last night compared developed-nation backers of a controversial leaked Danish draft climate change agreement with Nazi appeasers before World War II, as growing anger at the Copenhagen conference forced a temporary suspension of the main talks.

Climate Change Minister Penny Wong will land in the middle of the row when she arrives in Copenhagen today, after developing nations and environmental groups reacted with fury to the leaked document, developed by the Danish government in consultation with Kevin Rudd and other leaders.

The document was aimed at paving the way for the US to sign a “comprehensive” global agreement outside the Kyoto Protocol, but has inflamed the wealth divide that has stalled world climate talks for years.

The draft contains most elements of a tough global deal, including: the ambitious goal of limiting warming to 2C; emission reduction requirements of developed and developing nations listed in schedules as proposed by Australia; and an immediate $10 billion a year for developing countries to adapt to climate change and reduce their own emissions over the next few years.

But it leaves blank the specific national emission-reduction commitments that are supposed to be finalised in the political horse-trading in Copenhagen over the next two weeks and does not specify the date by which the final legal agreement must be reached.

…

Sudanese negotiator Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping, who speaks on behalf of the G77 group of developing nations, said the draft agreement was a new form of rich-country imperialism designed to divide poor nations and maintain the dominance of the developed world. (source)

There is also a split forming within developing countries about how to help the most vulnerable:

The small island states and poor African nations – the world’s most vulnerable to the worst effects of climate change – want any deal to contain stricter conditions than those agreed on in Kyoto in 1997.

The group includes the Cook Islands, Barbados and Fiji as well as the poor African nations of Sierra Leone and Senegal.

But their proposal for a tough new treaty is being resisted by China and India, whose leaders fear aggressive action could jeopardise economic growth. (source)

More from The Australian:

Tuvalu negotiator Ian Fry demanded the meeting consider creating a legally binding Copenhagen Protocol that would enforce developing nation emission reductions and run alongside the Kyoto Protocol’s demands on rich countries.

China, India and Saudi Arabia opposed the move because they don’t want to be legally bound to meet their emission reduction promises.

But they are left in a no-win position because they don’t like the idea backed by the US and other developed countries that a whole new agreement be formed, because they do want developed countries to continue to be bound by the Kyoto Protocol. (source)

Fun times!

The antidote to COP15. Check it out at www.copenhagenclimatechallenge.org. There you will find an open letter to Ban Ki-Moon, signed by 141 scientists, challenging him, and the UN, to produce evidence of dangerous AGW:

Climate change science is in a period of ‘negative discovery’ – the more we learn about this exceptionally complex and rapidly evolving field the more we realize how little we know. Truly, the science is NOT settled.

Therefore, there is no sound reason to impose expensive and restrictive public policy decisions on the peoples of the Earth without first providing convincing evidence that human activities are causing dangerous climate change beyond that resulting from natural causes. Before any precipitate action is taken, we must have solid observational data demonstrating that recent changes in climate differ substantially from changes observed in the past and are well in excess of normal variations caused by solar cycles, ocean currents, changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters and other natural phenomena.

…

It is not the responsibility of ‘climate realist’ scientists to prove that dangerous human-caused climate change is not happening. Rather, it is those who propose that it is, and promote the allocation of massive investments to solve the supposed ‘problem’, who have the obligation to convincingly demonstrate that recent climate change is not of mostly natural origin and, if we do nothing, catastrophic change will ensue. To date, this they have utterly failed to do so.

Roaring trade until 18 December

OK, I can’t put it off any longer. Yes, the biggest climate gab-fest in the history of the planet is set to kick off in a little under two hours. All the delegates have arrived in Copenhagen, checked in to their seedy little hotels, and have been issued maps to the Red Light district. After the daily tedium of climate change negotiations, we can be sure the local ladies of the night will do a roaring trade!

So what’s the point of all this? There won’t be any binding treaty, as that was chucked in the dumpster a couple of weeks ago, so it will be an expression of wishes at best.

China and India are only prepared to reduce “carbon intensity” which is emissions per unit of GDP, so their emissions will still increase rapidly, just a little bit more slowly than otherwise (because, let’s be honest, China and India are far more interested in economic growth than worrying about fixing a non-problem). The UK has already passed crippling laws that call for an 80% absolute reduction in emissions by 2050 – good luck with that. The US has the Waxman-Markey bill stalled by the Senate, and nothing much else apart from Obama’s platitudes.

And then of course there’s us Aussies, who have made headline news around the world by becoming the first country to see a leader of a major political party elected precisely because he is a sceptic. Go Aussie!

So what can we really expect? There will be a great deal of pontificating from the usual suspects: Pachauri, Obama, De Boer, Rudd, Brown etc etc. There will no doubt be stirring speeches about the fact that we have only [2] [5] [10] [20] [50] years to save the planet (insert appropriate figure). There will be acres of news coverage from Fairfax, which will try spin every announcement into something positive and encouraging. Unfortunately, however, there will almost certainly be no deal, and if we’re lucky, the whole thing may descend into farce and recrimination.

But, as my late uncle always used to remind me, “You can’t polish a turd.”

Strap yourselves in for the ride. Let’s pray for snow (maximum forecast for Friday: 2˚C).