Newspoll: Labor crashes further

Heading down

After a small recovery in the last Newspoll, Labor has continued its dive in popularity. Hmm, I wonder if the carbon tax has anything to do with it…?

SUPPORT for Labor has crashed again, collapsing to an eight-year, two-party-preferred low as Julia Gillard fights the Greens on “traditional values” and sticks by a carbon tax.

The latest Newspoll reveals backing for Tony Abbott and the Coalition has risen in the past fortnight, with the Opposition Leader making up ground to again trail Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister by only nine points.

During the past two weeks – as NSW Labor was wiped out at the state election and the Prime Minister targeted Greens’ policies as extremist – federal Labor’s primary vote fell from 36 per cent to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s rose from 40 per cent to 45 per cent.

The Greens’ support fell back to its 2010 election level of 12 per cent two weeks ago. The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian last weekend, reveals it has not shifted, despite the Greens picking up their first NSW lower house seat in the state election.

Based on preference flows at the last federal election, the Coalition has a 10-point lead over Labor on a two-party-preferred basis of 55 to 45 per cent. This is the Coalition’s biggest lead after preferences and Labor’s lowest two-party-preferred vote since April 2003, when Kim Beazley declared he wanted to take the Labor leadership because Simon Crean was not making any impact on the Howard government in the polls. (source)

And in other news, climate alarmists fail at basic maths:

SEA levels are rising close to the upper end of predictions made in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s landmark 2007 report.

Oceanographer and climate scientist John Church, who is writing the chapter on sea level rises for the IPCC’s 2013 update, said the world’s oceans were on track to rise by between 60cm and 80cm by 2100. “There’s no evidence to say that the IPCC has overestimated (the predictions),” Dr Church said.

He said sea levels were rising at about 3.2mm a year. In the 20th century, he said it was 1.7mm a year. [another very suspect claim – Ed] (source)

The last time I checked, 89 years x 3.2 mm/yr = 28.4 cm. So the rate of sea level rise would have to double or triple, to between 6 and 9mm per year, to reach the IPCC’s predictions of 60 or 80cm. And there is no sign of any acceleration whatsoever (in fact even a slight slowing) (see here, bottom graph). So, Dr Church, please explain why you say that sea level rises “are rising close to the upper end of predictions.”


  1. The Loaded Dog says:

    Poor old ALP.

    Dyoolya is a classic example of a person stuck in the warmist mindset.

    The polls “may” get better and are “likely” to be far more favourable to her and the party and it’s “possible” she “could” win the next election.

    but then again…..

  2. Baldrick says:

    The Earths sea levels have risen and fallen countless times in the past 4.5 billion years – all by natural causes. To suggest sea levels have risen in the past 100 years and will continue to rise, due to man made global warming, is a fairy tale – junk science – alarmist crap!

    No wonder the Labor/Green/Independent alarmists are free falling in the polls.
    The only thing certain of not rising, is their vote!

  3. “He said sea levels were rising at about 3.2mm a year. In the 20th century, he said it was 1.7mm a year”

    According to the University of Colorado, using satellite data, sea-level rise is currently around 1.3mm per year, down from about 3mm per year. For data using tide gauges, it is even less.

    Regardless of how that compares to predictions, either he is using cherry-picked data, or he’s just plain lying.

  4. The biggest thing in that Newspoll is the collapse in Greens support.

    The prior bad poll had Labor at 30 and Greens at 15. The one in between has now been shown as a rogue result.

    This one has Labor at 32 and Greens at 12.

    At first, people deserting Labor went to the Greens. They’ve had a good look at Brown and gone back to Labor. The coalition primary at 45 is pretty much unchanged. That means Labor is not winning any people back from the Carbon tax debates.

    One thing is for sure, we live in interesting times.

  5. Confusious says:

    Of course it is a great business so all these so called scientists are all on the gravy train. Unlimited access to taxpayers’ money and all day playing computer games they call modelling, based on the garbage in garbage out principle. These shining examples of scientific prostitutes are giving real scientists a bad name. Left wing politicians, of course, love them to bits as they have them in their pocket and both are leeches living off the taxpayer. Apart from certain miniscule appendages there is really not much difference between Garnaut and Juliar.

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