BEST: as usual, it's WORSE than we thought

Hardly the BEST...

I love it when warmists start throwing custard pies at each other. In this case, however, it’s far more than that.

You will recall that the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project (BEST) announced earlier this week (providing pre-publication drafts that had not been peer-reviewed to the press) that the earth was indeed round and not flat, in other words that, in a shocking revelation, temperatures have been rising for the last couple of hundred years (see here). That was supposed to silence the deniers once and for all. Except we all knew that anyway – it was nothing but a feeble straw man, which sceptics ridiculed mercilessly.

And now it gets far, far worse, as Judith Curry dumps about twenty tonnes of fetid bat-poo on the BEST project. It’s dynamite:

[T]oday The Mail on Sunday can reveal that a leading member of Prof Muller’s team has accused him of  trying to mislead the public by hiding the fact that BEST’s research shows global warming has stopped.

Prof Judith Curry, who chairs the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at America’s prestigious Georgia Institute of Technology, said that Prof Muller’s claim that he has proven global warming sceptics wrong was also a ‘huge mistake’, with no  scientific basis.

Prof Curry is a distinguished climate researcher with more than 30 years experience and the second named co-author of the BEST project’s four research papers.

Her comments, in an exclusive interview with The Mail on Sunday, seem certain to ignite a furious academic row. She said this affair had to be compared to the notorious ‘Climategate’ scandal two years ago.

Like the scientists exposed then by leaked emails from East Anglia University’s Climatic Research Unit, her colleagues from the BEST project seem to be trying to ‘hide the decline’ in rates of global warming.

In fact, Prof Curry said, the project’s research data show there has been no increase in world temperatures since the end of the Nineties – a fact confirmed by a new analysis that The Mail on Sunday has obtained.

‘There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’

However, Prof Muller denied warming was at a standstill.

‘We see no evidence of it [global warming] having slowed down,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. There was, he added, ‘no levelling off’.

A graph issued by the BEST project also suggests a continuing steep increase.

But a report to be published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation includes a graph of world average temperatures over the past ten years, drawn from the BEST project’s data and revealed on its website.

This graph shows that the trend of the last decade is absolutely flat, with no increase at all – though the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have carried on rising relentlessly.

‘This is nowhere near what the  climate models were predicting,’ Prof Curry said. ‘Whatever it is that’s going on here, it doesn’t look like it’s being dominated by CO2.’

Prof Muller also wrote an article for the Wall Street Journal. It was here, under the headline ‘The case against global warming scepticism’, that he proclaimed ‘there were good reasons for doubt until now’.

This, too, went around the world, with The Economist, among many others, stating there was now ‘little room for doubt’.

Such claims left Prof Curry horrified. 

‘Of course this isn’t the end of scepticism,’ she said. ‘To say that is the biggest mistake he [Prof Muller] has made. When I saw he was saying that I just thought, “Oh my God”.’ (Mail on Sunday)

OMG indeed. So pull up a chair, grab the popcorn and enjoy the show.

Read it all at the link.

More at WUWT here (toward whom the hat is gratefully tipped)

More at GWPF here.


  1. I think Professor Muller is even confusing himself.

    On one hand he says, “‘We see no evidence of it [global warming] having slowed down,’ he (Prof Muller) told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. There was, he added, ‘no leveling off’.”

    Then in this quote from the Mail on Sunday link provided by Simon, “However, he (Prof Muller) admitted it was true that the BEST data suggested that world temperatures have not risen for about 13 years. But in his view, this might not be ‘statistically significant’, although, he added, it was equally possible that it was – a statement which left other scientists mystified.

    So in either case he’s right … or wrong, as the case may be, depending on whether in his opinion, his view was correct, or maybe wrong, in the case of significant leveling, or not!

    • It’s a bit like, ‘On the one hand, tomorrow might become yesterday, but then again today might have been yesterday.’

  2. The IPCC uses Hadcrut3 data, which shows no warming for the past 13 years. Obviously no one has told Bob Brown and his puppet Gillard.

  3. Sean McHugh says:

    Mann’s “Hide the Decline” was good, but Muller’s is possibly the BEST.

  4. Rick Bradford says:

    What we’ve seen so far is nothing. Even the amusing sight of the creepy Deltoids trying and failing to keep their eco-raft afloat in the light of BEST is just a tasty hors d’oeuvre.

    The BEST is yet to come.

  5. Mervyn Sullivan says:

    The climate change charlatans who keep telling us that catastrophic man-made global warming is a problem are not true scientists. They don’t do science. What they do do is manipulate the science in order to deceive. For example, we saw it with Michael “Hockey stick” Mann… we saw it with Phil “Climategate” Jones… and now we see it with Muller. The shame of it all is that the work of these sorts of ‘scientists’ is so much admired by politicians like Australia’s PM, Julia Gillard. She claims they’re the credible scientists. Is it any wonder the climate change debate in Australia is a pile of crap!

  6. Some alarmists have said stuff like “now deniers are claiming they haven’t denied the Earth has been warming all along”, making it sound as if it were some kind of turnaround.

    When alarmists actually believe in the strawmen they build, you know their world is falling apart.

  7. john byatt says:

    Your just too easy Simon

    curryja | October 30, 2011 at 1:27 pm | Reply

    I just read Tamino’s post. Apart from the usual climate dittohead bash curry meme, his analysis is useful. However, please understand that my statement to Rose was about the plot with the 10 year running mean ending in 2006 being misleading. It is misleading. There has been a lag/slowdown/whatever you want to call it in the rate of temperature increase since 1998. This is being widely discussed, see the greenwire article for various opinions on this

    So, actually this is a “hide the slowdown” issue.

    As far as I can tell, there is nothing in the BEST data that says there is no lag/slow down in the warming during the past decade or so.

  8. GLOBAL warming didn’t stop 13y ago; because there wasn’t any GLOBAL warming to stop. Today the atmosphere has same warmth units as 14-15-20 years ago. Skeptics by saying that warming stopped, they are dignifying the Warmist. Global warming was a concocted lie, not factual. People that concocted it – should be taken to court of justice. How can one do that; when most of the active Skeptics believe in that concocted lie. That lie is continuing, Warmist will not admit that they have concocted the lie – to incriminate themselves – as long as the active Skeptics insinuate that was a warming, but stopped. Instead of declaring: it was all a big lie, show us a GLOBAL warming – or every tax dollar spent – money back, with modest interest!!! Then they should start repairing the damages done to the economy, environment and brainwashed school kids.

  9. john byatt says:

    Re the last two plots on the Mail 10 year graph

    at Tamino

    Nick Stokes | October 31, 2011 at 2:18 am | Reply
    I did a count of the data that BEST has for 2010. In March they have 14488 stations reporting. In April and May there are 47. And in June, none.
    And April and May are all Antarctic.

    Rattus Norvegicus | October 31, 2011 at 2:39 am | Reply
    Well, that pretty much settles it then. Those months clearly should not have been analyzed because of inadequate coverage of the data. Good catch.”

    This then explains the deep drop in the last two plot points (apr. may) on the Mail


  10. Kevin R. Lohse says:
  11. Kevin R. Lohse says:
  12. A. C. Osborn says:

    Have any of you guys looked at the dataset posted by best?
    One thing it isn’t is a Quality dataset, it has lots of problems, like minus signs that shouldn’t be there etc.

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