Bureau of Meteorology's summer forecasts: 'hopeless again'

Max anomaly predictions

Anecdotally, from my weather station here on the Upper North Shore in Sydney, this has been the Year without a Summer. Mean temperatures for December, January and February were 18.6C, 21.5C and 21.6C, significantly lower than 2010/11 (21.7, 23.9, 24.1) and 2009/10 (22.9, 23.9, 23.4).

Overall summer means for the three months December, January and February were 20.5C for 2011/12, down 2.8C compared to 2010/11 and 2.9C compared to 2009/10. All totally meaningless in terms of climate, of course, but interesting none the less.

Warwick Hughes on the warmist BoM predictions for the Year:

This summer has been cooler than average across vast areas of Australia. Which has been a surprise to the BoM.

The BoM 3 month summer temperature outlooks were issued in November – actual daytime temperature anomalies were cooler over vastly more area of Australia than the BoM predicted. The actual warmth along the Perth to Pilbara coast and Sth Aust & Vic turned out to be miniscule compared to the BoM predictions. Ditto for the Far North which turned out near average. The BoM scores some marks for their Eastern and Central Australian cool predict but all of their hot predictions turned out cooler and smaller.



  1. Emily Shearer-Matsko via Facebook says:

    in the north east of the US we really haven’t had much of a winter….trade off? lol

  2. Dan Lynch via Facebook says:

    If it’s cold somewhere, you can be guaranteed it’s warmer somewhere else on the planet. That seems to be how weather & climate work.

  3. I recall that someone (not a primary source) also claimed that the BoM had predicted this would be a year of frequent major cyclones for Queensland.

    • Baldrick says:

      It’s here, from the BOM..
      “The whole Australian Region has an 80% chance of having more than the long-term average number of cyclones. The long-term average is twelve.”
      “The Eastern Region (which covers Queensland) has a 65% chance of observing above average number of tropical cyclones, where the long-term average is three or four”.

      So far this season the whole Australian region has had 6 cyclones, half the long-term average!

  4. Stuart Anderson via Facebook says:

    Cmon Dan dont be a denier lol.

  5. Stuart Anderson via Facebook says:

    (insert sarcasm above)

  6. Linda Muller via Facebook says:

    Where was it warm? It certainly wasn’t in Australia’s in Summer. 😉

  7. Annie Stewart via Facebook says:

    Look at the big freeze in England this year. Strange that it’s warm in the US and not in Europe. I know my friend in Canada was freezing / complaining about the snow!

  8. All weather and total climate is governed by one .The sun!!! You see what happens to Venus (96.5 %co2,460 °C) when the sun warms the planet. Then we see what happens to mars (95% co2 27 °C to −143 °C ) when the heat of the sun is cooler. Venus is 108,208,930 km from the sun while Mars is 227,936,640 km and Earth is 152,000,000 km. Co2 can only radiate heat to a certain point no more and no less. The suns rays heat the co2 molecule up to the total heating point of the suns rays. If the co2 molecule has less sun input the co2 radiant heat will be less, like the surface of mars. Bring the suns rays closer to the co2 molecule it heats up, but only to a certain point. Like that of Venus. Co2 can only radiate the total input, no more no less. A simple test will prove this Put co2 into a clear bottle with a inbuilt temperature gauge. Now you must have a light that will simulate the suns rays at different distances from the bottles. Now record the stabilized temperature. Then slowly fill the bottles up with equal parts of co2 per bottle up to 95% co2. Then record the temperature change. should simulate that of mars and venus.

  9. Scarface says:

    Didn’t you get the memo?

    Cold weather is consistent with Global Warming.
    So, it’s worse than we thought.

  10. and….wheres Tim Flannery, predictor of doom and gloom?

  11. Nenky L Wibawa via Facebook says:

    Repeat after me “This year will be the warmest yet on record”…

  12. John Leal via Facebook says:

    Senator Cory Bernardi and others have called for an audit on BOM and the CSIRO: http://joannenova.com.au/2011/02/announcing-a-formal-request-for-the-auditor-general-to-audit-the-australian-bom/ but I haven’t heard anything since.

  13. John Leal via Facebook says:

    This was because of blatant temperature fiddling by BOM.

  14. John sorry to break it to you but the liberal party is in on the scam

  15. well a long long time ago, Australia was a very wet continent and had rain forests all over it.

  16. Streetcred says:

    I’ve been watching BoM 7 day forecasts in Brisbane over this summer. Without fail the temperature highs forecast were 2-3C higher each day than what was experienced … lovely to have online real time weather data. Not to mention that they have had pretty much everything else wrong as well like forecasting rain for the week only for it to be sunny. They’re overly consumed in this CAGW nonsense.

  17. Kevin R. Lohse says:

    No big freeze in southern England, just a cold snap lasting about 10 days, during which the birdshredders produced less than 10% of their capacity and coal-fuelled power production was bending the dials. Less than 0.3 MW windpower from a capacity on-grid of 4MW was common. Central and Eastern Europe have been hard-hit by cold, apparently due to global warming.

  18. Richard N says:

    Somewhere some warmist boffin will right now be somehow manufacturing a dramatic upward temperature trend graph of global tempertures that must not be disputed. I bet Michael Mann could pull one out of his arse right now.

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