Bondi shock: Fewer big waves due to climate change

Surfing at Bondi, circa 2100

Surfing at Bondi, circa 2100

UPDATE: The paper actually predicts less storminess, which is in direct contradiction to what is generally assumed will result from AGW.

Almost as iconic as the koala (threatened by climate change) is the surfing at Bondi, which is, er, threatened by climate change:

Bondi Beach surfers warned of fewer big waves due to climate change

Surfers in eastern Australia have been warned that large waves could become less frequent, as the number of days with waves of 12 feet or more will drop by up to 40 per cent by the end of the century.

Researchers have warned surfers along Australia’s east coast that the days of big waves are set to end, with climate change expected to cause a severe drop in the frequency of large ocean waves.

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, found the number of days with large waves of 12 feet or more on Australia’s east coast will drop by up to 40 per cent by the end of the century and about by 20 per cent over the next 30 years. The findings were based on measurements from five buoys in deep ocean waters located about four to eight miles off the coast of the state of New South Wales. These measurements were collated with storm data collected from the atmosphere.

“Results are remarkably consistent between different [climate models], allowing anthropogenic influences to be clearly demonstrated, with fewer days with large waves expected to occur in eastern Australia due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations,” the study says. (source)

So there you have it, in black and white. I reckon a new (naturally occurring) ice age might have a similar effect, given sea levels would drop by hundreds of metres, and there isn’t much we can do about that either.

The abstract is here (if you really want to read it).


  1. Fewer big waves- that’s only half the story.

    Like everything else in global warming, there will also be more big waves. It all depends on whether you want big waves or not. The people who want big waves will get fewer, and the people who fear big waves will get more. It’s all in the science.

    Just remember- as a rule of thumb- it’s worse than we thought.

    (This is not a death threat.)

  2. Tsk! Decreasing storminess? What will we do!

    The Climate Council report, “Angry Summer”, is also good for a laugh:

  3. The header at NCC is “Fewer large waves projected for eastern Australia due to decreasing storminess”.
    Decreasing storminess ? This will never do – someone ring the Mind Police …
    The abstract is entertaining. Starts with “Extratropical cyclones are the main generators of the strong winds that cause large ocean waves in temperate regions of the world” [uh?], cheerfully admits GCMs are no good when it comes to wind, then introduces downscaling which they admit is also no good, then hey presto they find “anthropogenic influences to be clearly demonstrated, with fewer days with large waves expected to occur in eastern Australia due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.”
    I think their Figure 2 is a prediction of what this kind of garbage has done to their respective IQs.

  4. Alex Hamilton says:

    A new study by a physics professor has shown why climate change is not related to carbon dioxide levels.

    It is more likely to be cosmic rays from near the Sun that affect CFC levels here, which in turn affect the ozone layer. This new research shows that CFC levels correlate well with climate records thus leaving carbon dioxide out of the picture, as I have been saying, because a correct application of physics shows that gravity forms an autonomous thermal gradient (lapse rate) leaving none of that “33 degrees of warming” needing to be done by water vapor and carbon dioxide etc. In fact, gravity causes even higher surface temperatures which are then reduced by water vapor, as empirical data shows when comparing similar moist and dry regions.

  5. Eamon Butler. says:

    Oh NO! and all our ski resorts have closed down because nobody has seen any snow for years. Now the oceans are going to be waveless. Damn you Co2. Our Planet would be a much better place without you.


    • Maybe NCC, Flannery & Steffen think it will be better if we are all “dead” because that is where we ALL will be WITHOUT that dreaded gas CO2 daring to keep the life cycle going!

  6. Reblogged this on CraigM350.

  7. Never mind about Gaia. Where is Hughie when you need him (Send’em down Hughie!).

  8. I kinda like the idea of swimming in the ocean without being dumped. 😛

  9. Krudd Gillard of the Commondebt of Australia says:

    The tactic seems increasingly to pick an interest group and produce some crock of shite report to scare them into thinking “climate change” is going to extinguish their interest.

    Can’t wait to see what they come up with for one of their key supporter bases: paedophiles.

  10. manicbeancounter says:

    Blame Stephen Lewandowsky. He smuggled them over over to England in his suitcase. You can have him and your waves back.

    • These crazy alarmists appear to be trying to create the Laws of Climate Change!
      Can I put a suggestion for the #1 Law?


  11. On the good side, the surfers won’t have to walk over all that beach to get to the water when the sea level rises to cover the opera house.

  12. John Of Cloverdale WA, Australia says:

    Just out of interest. The Bondi tidal pools date from the 1890’s and are part of a network of tidal pools around Sydney and NSW that have existed for over 100 years. Obviously the unprecedented sea level rise caused by CO2-global warming is mysteriously absent at these places. I bet that in another 100 years people will still be swimming in these pools.
    This article on sea level rises around Australia, and published in The Australian, is worth reading:

  13. The research grant spin meisters need the antho-induced catastrophic angle…it’s a requirement for funding. I mean, who on earth would fund someone to do research using a model to come up with this? They could have spun it……less coastal erosion…..but, well, no pot stirring to be found there.

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