Surprise! Bureau warns of ‘scorching, dry summer’

A Bureau meteorologist prepares the seasonal outlook

A meteorologist at the BoM prepares the latest seasonal outlook

I’m surprised they didn’t warn of an ‘angry summer’ (© The Climate Council).

Actually it wasn’t angry at all. It wasn’t even slightly miffed. The crystal-ball-gazing of the Bureau has a pretty shocking track record, but that doesn’t stop the usual pre-summer catastrophism:

Most Australians are in for a substantially hotter and drier-than-normal summer, the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest seasonal outlook says.

The bureau’s December to February Climate and Water Outlook predicts warmer-than-normal summer days and nights are more likely for all regions except western WA, southwestern Victoria and Tasmania.

While that outlook is less severe for western Victoria than was forecast in November’s three-month outlook, BoM climate prediction service manager Dr Andrew Watkins says the odds still slightly favour warmer conditions.

“You’ve got to remember that we’re coming off a very dry period and a very warm period in western Victoria,” Dr Watkins said.

“Things have been dry. Things have been hot and the bushfire potential is still very high in those areas.” (source)

If it’s as accurate as previous BoM seasonal outlooks, we should be in for a few months of cold and rain.

Comments

  1. Every single year, at this time, ABC news warns that this is likely to be the worst bushfire season on record, according to the experts.
    If the spring season has been wet, they say there is abundant growth and consequent high fuel load.
    If the spring has been dry they say conditions are tinderbox dry.

    • And regarding their forcast…why why why were they not burning off. I cried when I saw the media reports of the recent fires in the Blue Mountains. Idiots haven’t learned from last year… I saw lttle evidence of clearing away debri and bush from homes and the street…. sheer madness.

  2. Well last night we had a bunch of guys sitting around the fire in the backyard because it was in the low 20s. And I live in Western Sydney.

  3. “predicts warmer-than-normal ” – what the hell is ‘normal’ when discussing the weather?

    This terminology is why lots of people think anything other than warm, balmy days and only rain at night (and just enough of both to make one feel comfortable) is unusual, catastrophic and something ‘they’ should do something about.

  4. Our local Canberra radio station 2CC had their usual chat with a bloke from the BoM on Mark Parton’s morning show. The BoM bloke issued the next 3 month ‘climate’ forecast of a hotter than usual Canberra summer. Climate forecast? Are they not in the business of forecasting weather? There’s another budget saving for you Mr Abbott. Prune some of the greenoid alarmists from the BoM!

  5. thingadonta says:

    isn’t every summer scorching and dry in Australia? A bit like saying water is wet.

  6. Seems to be a contest between BOM and UK Met Office to see who can be wrong most often!

  7. Stephan De Jonghe says:

    It’s bound to be stormy, rainy, showery, drizzely, humid, dry, gale force, gusty, blowy, windy, calm, cold, cool, fine, warm, hot with a slim chance of snow in susceptible areas:)

  8. Old Sailor Man says:

    I can remember about 4 years ago listening (abc radio) to a Test match in Adelaide mid-December. The commentators were using phraseology like “sweltering” “unbearable”, “brutal conditions”, etc etc. I was talking to a mate a bit later, who was at the game, said it was warm, low thirties, nice.
    The fix is in.

    • In 2002 at the Women’s Tennis Final at the Australian Open between Martina Hingis and Jennifer Capriati the temperature was 52 degrees on Centre Court. Both players did not whinge about the heat.
      They both said they expect to play in the heat in Melbourne. This brought about a change in the Heat Rule.
      Problem solved.

  9. What about next winter? This year inner-urban Melbourne had its first white frost for years (burnt off my vegies). Should we prepare for another one?

  10. Tough I’m not from Australia, I still have a point of view. So, I think it’s important not to forget that we are facing a world wide global warming period and, most important, that Australia is surrounded by oceans and that oceans are influencing the climate. And that sometimes we are too dumb to prevent climate change, like is saying here: http://1ocean-1climate.com/archive.php#TOO_DUMB_TO_PREVENT_CLIMATE_CHANGE_AND_WWII?

  11. smamarver, you cannot even see the difference between normal climatic changes AND the phony global warming!…

    Water changes the climate, not CO2: Sahara and Brazil have same amount of CO2, but completely different climates – do you know why? Australia needs to build more dams and save stormwater, to improve the climate – they are not doing that; because of people like you that cannot see the reality; that H2O changes climate AND the phony global warming is only for rip-off!!!

  12. It is called El Nino and comes around every 6 or 7 years. It has done for a lot longer than Australia has had humans living here.
    Just another case of trying to use NORMAL weather conditions as Climate Change alarmism.
    In the sixty odd years I’ve been around we have had bushfires every summer with a catastrophic fire every 10 to 12 years.

  13. Stefanthedenier, that’s exactly what I’m saying by quoting that site. Take a look and you’ll understand. I don’t understand why are you accusing me…..

    • Stefan – I think you have misunderstood smamarver’s comment – he’s just saying that the planet is experiencing a natural warming phase (after the Little Ice Age) and it’s normal for temperatures to increase year-to-year during such a period, am I right?

      • Yes, you’re right! Tks for supporting!

      • Simoooon! Officer is successful in battle – the one that checks and double-checks his own weapons first! You people are shooting blanks at the warmist – and shooting yourself with machine-gun in the foot; by using the pagan beliefs!

        1] climatologist didn’t start lying in the 80’s, they started lying from the day Darwin published his book! b] how can you prove that is not going to be warming in 100y, with the past phony ”global” warmings?! Warmings / coolings are always localized, ”there was NEVER polar caps ice free”. Warmist cannot have a single proof, because isn’t any ”global” warming – only reason they are prospering is; because the ”skeptics” are scaring the public that: earth can get warmer or colder at the drop of a hat! You children have to start realizing that: Santa is not for real….

        They are brainwashing the kids in school and uni, in few years all the conservative politicians will be Warmist -> will start sending dog catchers on you people. c] there is no ”pause” just there is NO ”global” warming! the phony ‘pause” will last for millions of years. I can prove everything I say; you people are stewing in the pagan beliefs and let the warmist prosper with lies!…

      • Simon, get out of your box and learn about ”real proofs” that can be all proven now – then with your brilliant English; you can decimate the Warmist. Stop relaying on those pagan beliefs! please read every sentence::: https://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com/2014/07/12/cooling-earth/

    • Smamarver, if Tony Abbot did know that: ”climatic changes” AND the phony ”global” warming are NOT a same thing – he would have rubbed Obama’s nose! Instead; because the phony skeptics are his advisers – when the media was asking them: what you say about Obama’s speech? he said that: he is giving 2,5 billion to climate change”
      No, no; he didn’t mean to build dams and attract more clouds inland australia – he meant: to give those money to the Warmist Organized Crime (WOC) to keep them happy

  14. Especially true a new research is showing that the Little Ice Age was global, not just restricted to Europe. What goes down (temp) must eventually come back up. Can’t wait for Greenland to be free of year round ice. The archeologists will have a field day finding all those lost viking settlements!

    • Paz, all those ”researchers” that ”research” tree rings, stalagmites, pit bogs, ice cores – should be ALL in jail. They find what they ”intended” to find, not looking for the truth; because the truth is not in those things.

      I presume that’s what you are referring: the ”skeptics” were told that LIA was only in Europe -> they found a pit-bog in Chile and found all the evidences they need, for the ”WHOLE” S/H…. WOW! Perfect example why the warmist are robing the people… trow away the thermometers – two pit bogs can tell the temp for every city and country on the planet…?!?! shame, shame, shame!
      Warmist / the grown ups, tell the children that Santa comes trough the chimney – toddlers are ”proving” that ”Santa comes trough the backdoor…? that will shock the grown ups…

    • paz,
      Greenland was never ice free, and never will be; as long as the island is on the polar cap! can you dig the truth? Vikings ”attempting” to leave on Greenland, is not a proof of ”global” warming!!! Greenland is not the ”globe” the planet is a big place! 2] at the same time when vikings attempted to survive on Greenland – for 100y they were occupying Sicily = went from cold Scandinavia to Mediterranean climate! Did the viking had two globes simultaneously, one warmer, another colder globe? That’s what the pagan / skeptic’s beliefs say….?!

      paz, listen and learn the truth: -”on the northern half of Greenland, the temp is minus – 75C! For ice to start melting – needs to get one degree above zero C! That means: ” the planet needs to get warmer by 76C, for ice to melt on the polar caps!!! if the planet gets warmer by 76C, in tropics and subtropics NOW is 37C. You calculate, arithmetic is the most reliable science:: 76C +37c = 113C.
      THAT’s and was 13C above water boiling point on subtropics and tropics!!!
      Can you see why the ”skeptics are born losers? You have being duped by the Warmist, and by Ian Plimer, to warship pagan beliefs… ASK SIMON TO HELP YOU, TO PROVE ME WRONG!

  15. Simooon, and the rest of you guys, learn some truth about your ”water pistols ::: How LIA started:
    Just before LIA, population in north Africa increased – uncontrollable wildfires made Sahara bigger and started producing ”extra” dry heat – that extra dry heat increased evaporation in the Mediterranean, Mediterranean doesn’t have any tributaries to replenish the water deficit from higher evaporation- it’s only Nile – decreasing vegetation upstream decreased water in Nile also. Therefore: EXTRA warm-water in the ”Gulf-stream” was going from Mexican gulf into the Mediterranean – ”gulf-stream” supplies water to Mediterranean and in North-Sea / Baltic – more into Mediterranean = LESS share warm tropical water going to Denmark and Latvia = less warm-water to evaporate around England and less warming the area = LIA. was created.

    You will instantly say: but now Sahara is just as big, why and how LIA finished?!! Constant debate when LIA finished, because in the finishing years might have influenced other freak events, so, it’s unclear for them, but, YOU will tell them exactly which year the LIA officially finished! I’ll tell you how: you go to the library, or Google and find out what year exactly the Suez canal was opened. BECAUSE: from that year on; some of the water ”deficit” from evaporation in Mediterranean was supplied by water coming from the Red sea into Mediterranean (I think was 1883, can’t remember) ”Less gulf-stream hot water” needed to come to Mediterranean = BIGGER share of warmwater started going to Denmark – more tropical hot-water started evaporating around England and was warming the area = LIA finished!

    Plus: you will find out that: since finishing day of LIA until today; LESS water from river Rheine and river Seine from Paris drains now in the sea; plus many other small rivers and creeks from Latvia to northern Spain; because of use of lots of water for industries, for bigger cities, much MORE irrigation = LESS cold water from the Alps drains into north sea from Rheine, probably only half of the water now, than during LIA. What that means: because is high evaporation there where hot and cold water meet = north sea and Baltic started sucking EXTRA tropical warm-water from the Mexican gulf – when more warm-water evaporation, warms more around England. Do you think that those events affected the WHOLE planet.Most of the ”Skeptics” think so…

    The biggest proof of LIA you have is: on a picture people scatting on frozen river Thames for few days. Well, two years ago, 1000 miles south/ closer to the equator; in Serbia and Romania river Danube 10 times bigger river than Thames, was completely frozen for two weeks, well recorded, same as Thames frozen scatting (people record unusual events, good days are boring) , BUT – now the shonks were not able to declare it as: midi ice age for 150y, because: when Danube was frozen and people were dying from cold in England, Poland – at exactly the same time was record braking heat in Australia and people were dying in the big bushfires. Now you know how and why LIA happened – tell the world in your English.
    I’ll give you proof about everything, REAL PROOFS THAT SCARES THE WARMIST!!!

    • Hi Stefanthedenier,
      impressive how many things you seem able to explain. In the 1920th and 1930th it had been getting warmer and warmer but ended suddenly in winter 1939/40. At the end of the third war month, 75 years ago on 30th November 1939 the Soviet Army ambushed Finland, and only a few weeks later The New York Times –25. December 1939- wrote (extract: http://www.1ocean-1climate.com/Russia-invades-finland-december-1939.php );
      Report by James Aldridge
      “The cold numbs the brain in this Arctic hell, snow sweeps over the darkened wastes, the winds howl and the temperature is 30 degrees below zero (minus 34.4 ° C). Here the Russians and Finns are battling in blinding snowstorms for possession of ice-covered forests. …I reached the spot just after the battle ended. It was the most horrible sight I had ever seen. As if the men had been suddenly turned to wax, there were two or three thousand Russians and a few Finns, all frozen in fighting attitudes. Some were locked together, their bayonets within each other’s bodies; some were frozen in half-standing positions; some were crouching with their arms crooked, holding the hand grenades they were throwing; some were lying with their rifles shouldered, their legs apart….(T)heir fear was registered on the frozen faces. Their bodies were like statues of men throwing all their muscles and strength into some work, but their faces recorded something between bewilderment and horror.”
      It was the beginning of a horrible winter in Europe, which unlikely had anything to do with CO2. But what caused the change in climate then? The Second World War?
      Could the subsequent global cooling 1940-about 1975 “….SCARES THE WARMIST!!!”

  16. smamarver commented in response to stefanthedenier ”Russians and Finns are battling in blinding snowstorms for possession of ice-covered forests”

    Smamarver, spot on, you are 100% correct; it was very cold on that battlefront! BUT: if you ask a 7y old: -”is that battlefront the globe?” he would tell you: don’t insult my intelligence! Your ”proof” is typical Skeptic’s proof, why the Warmist are marching from victory to victory. ”proofs” like that one are precursor of all evil…

    Before Darwin published his book – witches, demons, dragons and St Peter were controlling the climate – after that; same White Collar Criminals as today’s Warmist went into overdrive: find some imprint that for few days somewhere was colder, or warmer for few days – they were always declaring it as ”global warmings, ”global” coolings ”global” cycles. Because in the past was not much money for that kind of research – was a way to get a grant. plus, then was no scrutiny. Those phony ”global” warmings / coolings / cycles were used first by Suzuki and another American historian, big Warmist; to prove to the people that planet’s temp can go up and down as a yo-yo. He was using the crap about vineyards in England, Vikings on Greenland, frozen Thames and the rest of the crap that after Plimer put in his book… that was the best ever Warmist Christmas present. The book became ”Skeptic’s” gospel -> Warmist declared ”science settled”

    Smamaver, there is every year some places warmer than normal – if you follow those – can make case for ”global” warming, BUT simultaneously other places are colder than last year and following those can make case for ”global” cooling (that’s what they were doing in the 70’s) The ”globe” is a big place – unless skeptics learn that, Warmist won!

    THE TRUTH: overall global temp is ALWAYS the same; because the ”Temperature Self Adjusting Mechanism” (TSAM) is infallible!!! Unless the skeptics change tactic, when the truth is known, they will be blamed more, than the Warmist thieves, for giving blind support to the Warmist Organized Crime (WOC)! Cheers!

  17. Summer – HOT Winter – COLD

  18. Ross Stacey says:

    hi Stephanthedenier. The theory of TSAM is very interesting. Do you have any science to support this? A thorough discussion of this would go a long way to settling the IPCC claim of climate change being the result of increasing CO2. Or as Australia’s chief scientists input “all that extra CO2 must be doing something to the climate”

    • Ross greetings! 1] people brainwashed in both camps are avoiding to discuss; they suffer from ”truth phobia”
      2] most of heat is created on the ground – when any extra heat created, for any reason – vertical winds ”instantly” increase / proven by people using hang-gliders! The more heated gases – the higher and ”faster” they go – where air is thinner, where more cold vacuum penetrates in. On every 100m higher up, air is thinner and colder; gives more space to the unlimited cold vacuum! Often I say that: warmed air goes up to 25km altitude – as provocation, the ”researchers” to check for themselves. But, under normal circumstances, heated air doesn’t need to go more than 6-9km to instantly cool. Only when is super-heated gases from volcano or nuclear explosion, goes higher and cools quickly. The TRUTH is that: in the upper atmosphere zooms unlimited amount of cold vacuum, can neutralize any extra heat; even if heat doubles, which is theoretically impossible, anything to double the amount of heat!!!! CO2 is only used, to con the skeptics – skeptics are obsessed with phony global warmings / coolings – same as children love fairy-tales = skillful, cunning Warmist are hiding behind the skeptics, not to face the truth…

      Q:how fast gases expand after heated? A: heated gases are propelling bullet out of the barrel of the gun, that fast! ”Hotter” gases go ”higher”, where cooling is more efficient! example: if you put a cup of water at 100C in the freezer, and the other at 50C in the fridge = they will cool simultaneously. b] air is fluid and adjust itself in the atmosphere by temperature. From the ground, to 30km up; on every 50m higher is as colder shelf, higher much colder – gases readjust themselves, how high to go, by the heat they contain! The good lord inserted a thermometer in every gas atom – to tell the atom by ”how much” to expand, and never fails!!laws of physics were, are, and will be always the same! Warmed CO2 also goes up, where more cold vacuum penetrates to cancel the heat ”directly” from the CO2 = CO2 is not a greenhouse gas!!!

      .

  19. Hi Stephan. Doesn’t increasing CO2 act like putting a thicker blanket on bed and slow down the rate of heat escaping?

    • roscoaus, the blanket are oxygen &nitrogen 998999ppm!
      CO2 is between 270-400ppm = that means: ”blanket” smaller than a postage stamp; use postage stamp for one night in winter, instead of a blanket, please.

      2]most of the ”extra” CO2 is washed into the ground and into the sea, by the rain – good lord made water to wash dirt – creates mineral water. The amount of CO2 increasing and staying there in the atmosphere, as the propaganda says, is totally misleading!.

      3]because heat is not ”radiated” out the space, instead the cold vacuum penetrates into the atmosphere and neutralizes any heat = the whole propaganda is 100% wrong! please see this post: https://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com/2014/07/12/cooling-earth/

      • I can understand your reasoning for the self adjusting mechanism of temperature. However, measurements are showing an increase in CO2, even though rain does wash it into the land and sea. Could it be that increased CO2 could result in a higher stable temperature?

        • roscoaus2000, Temperature Self Adjusting Mechanism is just that, ”self adjusting”
          Same as when you jump in the air – not long after, you end up on the ground again, because of the laws of gravity. Similar laws are readjusting the ”overall” temp on the whole planet. parts on the planet always get warmer or colder; but ”overall temp is always the same. When they refer ”global” but are talking about ”some place” temp = they are confusing and brainwashing you. because: on the other 80% on the planet, where is normal AND where is colder than normal, they avoid to take in consideration = they are smart asses – point to them about the rest of the globe, don’t let them fool you.

          1] CO2 doesn’t increase the temp at all – only intercepts minuscule amount of sunlight in the air, WHERE COOLING IS MUCH MORE EFFICIENT – otherwise that same sunlight would have created that heat on the ground,

          2] (TSAM) can neutralize 1000 times more heat, than even if CO2 was producing extra heat, but it doesn’t produce!

          3] calling CO2 greenhouse gas, is a tremendous scam! Between every molecule of CO2 in the atmosphere, there are thousands of oxygen &nitrogen atoms = CO2 is like ”fishnet” not like blanket effect! If somebody was building a real / normal greenhouse, and was using a fishnet as a roof, it wouldn’t be a greenhouse – the neighbors would have put a straight jacket on him – BUT, all Warmist &Skeptics refer to CO2 as greenhouse gas, only because is fashionable and trendy = will need lots of straight jackets one day…

          I cannot give you all the proofs in a small comment; to counteract ALL the lies promoted for many years – but, you should expand / broaden your knowledge, by reading the posts I suggest, and always compare yourself. They have interest, billions of dollars, to tell lies – silence the scammers with real proofs!

  20. Hey Stephan, do you have time to enrol in this course and make it a balanced discussion.

    https://www.edx.org/course/making-sense-climate-science-denial-uqx-denial101x#.VJOzeTAOog

    • Ross, where brainwashing is; either is in PDF, or no comments allowed. I suggest: if you put on correct English the post ”Cooling Earth” and somehow invite those ”students” to read it and ask the brainwashers: why they don’t face the truth and read it also (I’ve inserted few more sentences and corrected few misspellings, but still not good enough)

  21. Ross Stacey
    (TSAM) all scientifically proven, for: Involuntary Euthanasia to IPCC
    Most of the volcanoes and hot vents are on the bottom of the sea – when they get more active -> more heat is released into the seawater -> evaporation increases (evaporation is cooling process) more evaporation => more clouds – clouds are the ‘’sun umbrellas’’ for the surface – intercept lots of sunlight high up (where cooling is more efficient) = less sunlight to the surface! B] more rain – rain brings coldness to the surface from high up, SELF ADJUST THE TEMP!(for the Green people water vapor is evil… no water vapor in Sahara / plenty of it in Brazil / Sahara hotter days, colder nights than Brazil = more extreme climate in Sahara; if you don’t know what’s good climate, ask the trees! – Nothing green about the Warmist – for ‘’green’’ needs extra H2O + CO2!!!

    2]tectonic plates move same as you: left foot, then right foot, sometimes you stop => in El Nino one side of tectonic plates move and activate submarine volcanoes and hot vents, then another side for La Nina, some years they stop- is neutral. B] overall ‘’global’’ temp is always the same; BUT: because where El Nino affects more, are more thermometers => they lie that is warmer! Also: because they use only the hottest minute in 24h – in El Nino days are hotter, but night colder than in La Nina; otherwise is same ‘’global’’ temp ‘’overall’’ always. Not using all 1440 minutes in 24h is the Mother of all Crimes and misleading!!!

  22. Ross Stacey
    (TSAM) all scientifically proven, for: Involuntary Euthanasia to IPCC

    The hotter the surface of the land gets -> air above collects the heat -> gases ‘’instantly’’ expand!(scientific proof: warmed gases propel the bullet out of the gun) The hotter they get, the more they expand, O2&N2, including CO2! (proof: after 30 minutes hot air balloon up, there is lots of CO2 inside it; but the warmed gases in the balloon lift and keep ½ ton high up) b] the more gases warm up -> the more they expand -> the more expanded -> the faster AND higher they go; where air is thinner and lots of ‘’cold vacuum’’ zooms trough! (experiment: release simultaneously a soccer and tennis ball on the bottom of a swimming pool -> soccer ball will travel up faster, and jump out of the water much higher than tennis ball / that’s how ‘’hotter’’ / more expanded gases go up faster and higher AND cool as quick as the not much warmed!)

    2] the ‘’higher’’ the thinner the air is, AND more ‘’cold vacuum’’ zooms trough it (example: aircraft gadgets tell the altitude by monitoring the air density = all scientifically proven) I’m in the tropics, at sealevel – only 10km above me is colder than on the polar caps –in US, Europe that coldness is even closer to the ground (where most of the Warmist Organized Crime (WOC) is located). We should be grateful that the earth produces some heat, to fight the unlimited coldness the earth is traveling trough; otherwise wouldn’t be any Warmist & phony ‘’Skeptic’’ alive, no trees, birds or animals! The ‘’proofs’’ exist; Warmist & Skeptics avoiding the real proofs = proof that they are not interested in the truth = LIARS! ‘’Laws of physics’’ were same in the past, as they are today- and will be same in 100y from now! Best proof that: past phony global warmings / coolings were NEVER global, but only localized!!!

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