All over?

From the ABC:

China has told participants in the UN climate change talks that it sees no possibility of reaching an operational accord this week, an official involved in the Copenhagen talks says.

The official, who asked not to be identified by name, told Reuters that the Chinese had suggested instead issuing “a short political declaration of some sort”.

The statement from the world’s biggest polluter comes less than 24 hours before most world leaders are due to join the climate change talks in Copenhagen, where ministers and negotiators have made only modest progress at best.

Talks have been stalled by a widening rift between developing nations and the developed world.

Maybe everyone will go home and we can get on with enjoying Christmas.

Read it here.

Day 10

Penny Wong’s moment of glory has been marred by protesters who tried to interrupt her speech:

COPENHAGEN delegates clapped protesters who interrupted Climate Change Minister Penny Wong’s speech.

Senator Wong had just taken to the stage to speak to hundreds of world leaders and diplomats when two young chanting protesters brought proceedings to a halt.

The summit president tried to talk over the top of the yelling, an alarm and the applause, calling for the talks to proceed and the noise continued as Senator Wong walked to the podium.

In her introduction a seemingly unfazed Senator Wong said her speech might not be as exciting as the last intervention. (source)

You can sure say that again. And things are still not going well, according to the BBC:

Formal negotiations at the UN climate summit have ground to a halt following wrangles about what documents should be used as the basis for talks. Beneath the dispute lies a long-running accusation from developing countries that the Danish hosts are trying to sideline their concerns. Outside, police clashed with protesters who stormed barricades around Copenhagen’s Bella Centre.

Activists have been angered by lack of progress on a new climate deal. They also complained about restrictions on access to the talks. Police detained more than 240 protesters during the clashes, which led to injuries on both sides.

As well as the negotiations at the summit, a succession of presidents and prime ministers has been delivering set-piece speeches. Many illustrated the very different visions that exist of the deal that should emerge from this summit.

…

Earlier, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown conceded that a deal might not be achievable here. But, he added: “If you don’t get an agreement this week, people will doubt whether you can get an agreement at all.” (source)

Then there is the required daily dose of alarmism:

Global sea levels could rise by up to 9m in the next few hundred years, even if the world manages to stabilise average temperatures to 2C above pre-industrial levels, according to a new study.

In this scenario, hundreds of millions of people around the world would be affected as low low-lying coastal areas became inundated. New Orleans would be lost to the sea, much of southern Florida and Bangladesh and most of the Netherlands.

The 2C figure is significant because this is level of warming that is likely to be adopted as the threshold to be avoided by the UN climate negotiations in Copenhagen – although small islands states and developing nations have argued that 1.5C would be a more appropriate target.

Nine metres of sea level rise is higher than anything predicted so far because the new study takes into account the potential that the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets start to melt as the Earth warms. This did not factor into the most recent assessment of the state of climate science by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. It forecast a sea-level rise of up to 59cm by 2100, and between 4-6m in the next few hundred years, if average global temperatures stabilised around 2C. (source)

“In the next few hundred years”? Sounds like a non-story dressed up as a scare. But hey, this is The Guardian, after all. And the funniest news of the day? Greenpeace getting a taste of its own medicine:

How do you like it?

“Propaganda Warrior,” the huge banner proclaimed. CFACT activists sailed up long-side of the infamous Greenpeace vessel, Rainbow Warrior, and unfurled a banner which underscored how the radical green group’s policies and agenda are based on myths, lies, and exaggerations, and perpetuate poverty, disease and premature death in Third World countries. Earlier in the day, CFACT activists boarded “Arctic Sunrise” and unfurled a banner that read “Ship of Lies” off the starboard side.

“Greenpeace’s callous disregard for the truth and people’s well-being has become intolerable,” says Craig Rucker. “So we decided to take action.”

CFACT unfurled the banners for two reasons, CFACT president David Rothbard explained. “Greenpeace ships, like the Rainbow Warrior and Arctic Sunrise, have become global symbols for radical environmentalism, and we wanted to call attention to the harm these groups are causing. And second, it seemed appropriate to use one of Greenpeace’s own favorite tactics to make this point.”

…

“The continuing scandal over falsified and destroyed temperature data, manipulated climate models, and a perverted scientific and peer review process further demonstrates that there is no valid basis for this anti-energy, wealth-redistribution, global governance Copenhagen treaty,” says Rucker.

Anti-energy policies represent a “clear and present danger to the health and welfare of billions,” Rucker says. Mandates for wind and solar would send energy prices skyrocketing, sharply constrict economic opportunities and destroy jobs.

“People in developing countries simply want to improve their living standards, and give their children a chance to live past age five,” Rothbard says. “Greenpeace is diametrically opposed to giving them access to the modern technologies that would help them do that.” (source)

Priceless!

From Politiken.dk:

12:00 – Police have ordered the demonstration to disperse, making it illegal to continue and permitting the arrest of anyone refusing to follow police orders to stop the demonstration.

11:45 – There are tumultuous scenes in connection with the Climate Justice Action Bella Center demonstration as demonstrators attempt to force fences and police lines to get into the security area. Bottles have been lobbed at police lines. Police have warned demonstrators that the Bella Center is a security area and any attempt to get in will result in arrest.

In some cases police have drawn batons and used pepper spray and teargas. So far some 200 people are said to have been arrested.

Cycling activists in groups of 10 are attempting to cause confusion and get into the Bella Center area at different locations.

Some 50 delegates and activists from within the Bella Center have made their way out of the building to meet the demonstrators.

*****************

08:00 A demonstration has begun in Copenhagen in which activists are marching on the Bella Center to attempt to take over the COP15 Climate Summit for a period.

Activists convened at around 8 a.m. at Tårnby as police searched vehicles and demonstrators at various locations. The main demonstration will be marching from Tårnby Station by way of Englandsvej and Vejlands Allé, while an alternative activist demonstration will be taking another undisclosed route.

Hardly going to make the negotiation any easier…

Read it here.

Load of balls…

The noises emanating from COP15 don’t look particularly encouraging:

The United States has “gone ballistic” over draft texts being considered for a climate deal in Copenhagen, demanding last-minute changes which halted negotiations.

As talks dragged late into the early morning, the US moved to water down provisions over greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for developed countries.

With still no progress after 5am on Wednesday in Copenhagen, negotiators were under pressure to deliver something to ministers for the morning.

The late hour was illustrated on the official United Nations video by the sleeping form of a delegate, lying prone across seats, being visible as the Cook Islands delegate addressed the meeting.

Heads of state have already started sweeping into the Danish capital and a deal is scheduled to be agreed by Friday.

Lead negotiator Jonathan Pershing said the US had “substantial discomfort” with the language being used.

His country was seeking a different structure to the Kyoto Protocol agreement, he said, and countries should take action domestically rather than agree to an internationally agreed figure.

Read it here.

Copenhagen’s turning into a bit of a circus for all the crackpot world leaders. Their presence subtracts even more credibility from the whole proceedings.

E, ba gum!

Robert Mugabe

Harrassment of electoral observers in 2002 meant that Robert Mugabe was denied entry into the European Union – and it is only because the Climate Summit is a United Nations event that he is allowed to set foot on Danish soil.

During last year’s presidential election, some 80 political activists died and hundreds disappeared. Mugabe also contravened the electoral law to ensure a victory that no-one recognises.

I've done Jihad

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Iran’s president has done what he could to arouse the wrath of the Western world. He has been accused of cooking the presidential election and coming down hard on protesters. At least 20 people were killed and many put in prison.

The president has also let his anti-Israeli rhetoric be heard. At the United Nations conference Durban II he called Israel “the most evil and oppressive racist regime.”

Carry 'em off

Islam Karimov

Karimov’s regime in Uzbekistan has the habit of boiling its opponents to death – at least according to the memoirs of Craig Murray, a former British ambassador to Tashkent from 2002 to 2004.

A demonstrable fact is that Karimov has run Uzbekistan ruthlessly since he declared the country independent in 1991. International human rights organisations say that Uzbekistan uses systematic torture and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe says last year’s presidential elections were unfair.

Lovely. Read it here.

Day 9

The two big hitters in these negotiations are at loggerheads, meaning that the chance of any significant deal is virtually zero. Already there is talk of “failure” and the focus now is on a possible extension of Kyoto, combined with a new deal to bring in the US and developing countries – sounds like a dog’s breakfast to me:

Yu Qingtai, China’s climate ambassador, batted away calls for Beijing to up its pledge.

China’s plan, which entails braking its expected use of energy in relation to economic growth, is not on the table, he told reporters at the climate talks in Copenhagen.

“We announced those targets, we don’t intend to put them up for discussion,” Yu said.

Separately, the United States poured cold water on the notion that it would deepen its offer of cutting greenhouse-gas emissions, as outlined by President Barack Obama in the run-up to the conference.

“I am not anticipating any change in the mitigation commitment,” US chief delegate Todd Stern told a press conference.

“Our commitment is tied to our anticipated legislation and there are elements in that legislation that could result in an overall target or an overall reduction amount that could actually be a fair amount higher.

“But we’re not making a commitment to that right now because it’s just uncertain and we don’t want to promise something that we don’t have.”

The roles of China and the United States, the world’s No. 1 and 2 emitters, are pivotal to the negotiations unfolding in Copenhagen on crafting a new global pact on climate change beyond 2012. (source)

For some reason, Australia sees itself as playing an important part in these negotiations, despite not having any emissions trading legislation (thanks, Tony!) and contributing less than 1.5% to global emissions. But Penny and Kevin see themselves as climate crusaders, wading in to try and clinch a deal for the sake of the planet:

ENVIRONMENT ministers in Copenhagen are battling to achieve agreement on a fall-back option of two separate climate change agreements — an extension of the Kyoto Protocol and a separate deal bringing in the US and the developing world.

The compromise is an attempt to break the deadlock between developing countries which want a continuation of the Kyoto Protocol for rich nations, and the US and other developed countries, which say global warming cannot be slowed without binding and verifiable promises from major developing countries as well.

After a day when the stand-off initially brought the negotiations to a halt, Danish Environment Minister Connie Hedegaard has appointed key ministers, including Climate Change Minister Penny Wong, to try to break particular deadlocked issues and save the talks from failure.

But some developing countries labelled that process “totally undemocratic and totally untransparent” and indicated they would continue to resist it.

Australian business groups in Copenhagen warned that the “two-agreement” solution posed regulatory risks.

“Having a two-speed approach might get us through this week, but if it institutionalises different rules it could mean we end up playing by different rules to China and the United States,” said the Mineral Council of Australia’s Brendan Pearson. (source)

The Indians have clearly had enough of Wong’s meddling:

India has labelled Australia an “ayatollah” because of its strident advocacy of a one-track approach at the UN climate talks that will eventually force all countries to be bound by a single treaty.

In frank comments to the Herald at the Copenhagen summit, India’s Environment Minister, Jairam Ramesh, said bluntly: “Australia is sort of the ayatollah of the single track”.

Developing countries are arguing that Australia and its allies are trying to push the outcome of the talks away from the Kyoto Protocol. Mr Ramesh warned that this was “a recipe for disaster at the talks”.

The Indian Environment Minister had just pulled out of a crucial meeting with Australia’s Climate Change Minister, Penny Wong, aimed at breaking the deadlock in the climate talks. (source)

Keep up the good work Penny! I looks like you are singlehandedly wrecking any chance of a deal – I’m starting to admire you! And she’s openly talking of failure at Copenhagen, and is worried for the sake of the planet if it happens:

“All of us are concerned about what would happen if we fail,” Senator Wong told reporters from the summit on Tuesday afternoon.

“But can I say that the possibility of failure is not so much a political problem, it’s a problem for the world.”

Despite the possibility of failure Senator Wong was upbeat the climate change summit could turn a corner and be a success.

That’s because world leaders – including Australia’s Kevin Rudd – fly in from Tuesday to take over the talks. [Yeah, that’ll make all the difference. A Krudd-speak filled homily from our PM – Ed]

“We’re moving into what I hope will be a more constructive phase,” Senator Wong said.

“We’ve got to get out of the trenches and get around the negotiating table, and that’s what we intend to do.”

I think Penny’s been at the happy pills. On a lighter note, the best advert for the abolition of the British monarchy, Prince Charles, has delivered a bonkers speech at Copenhagen – always good for a laugh:

“The future of mankind can be assured only if we rediscover ways in which to live as a part of nature, not apart from her,” he said. “The grim reality is that our planet has reached a point of crisis and we have only seven years before we lose the levers of control.” [Seven years – mark it in the diary along with all the others – Ed]

He pointed out that climate change is a “risk multiplier”.

“Reducing poverty, increasing food production, combating terrorism and sustaining economic development are all vital priorities, but it is increasingly clear how rapid climate change will make them even more difficult to address,” he warned. (source)

Don’t forget – this is a guy who talks to trees.

Day 8

It’s all going worse [better? – Ed] than we thought, as a bunch of African nations lead a 5-hour boycott of working groups and Nigeria warns that the talks are on “red alert”:

Sources at the marathon talks said Africa led a five-hour boycott of working groups, with the backing of the Group of 77 developing nations, and only returned after securing guarantees that the summit would not sideline talks about the future of the Kyoto Protocol.

The Kyoto Protocol ties rich countries – but not developing countries – that have ratified it to legally binding emissions curbs.

It also has an important mechanism enabling the transfer of clean-energy technology to poorer nations.

Yet it does not include the United States, which says the Protocol is unfair as the binding targets do not apply to developing giants that are already huge emitters of greenhouse gases.

Algeria, speaking at a press briefing on behalf of the 53-member African Union, demanded that there should be a special plenary session devoted to Kyoto.

“Otherwise we are going to lose everything,” Algeria’s chief negotiator Kemal Djemouia told reporters.

Asked about the state of negotiations, Nigeria’s pointman rang the alarm bell.

“It is ‘climate code red’ right now, we are in code red right now, we stand at the crossroads of either hope for Africa or hope dashed in ‘Hopenhagen’,” Victor Ayodeji Fodeke told AFP. (source)

And right on cue, there is the Point-Gun-At-Head-of-Cuddly-Creature moment, to add an emotional frisson to the proceedings:

Emotional blackmail

Climate change threatens the survival of dozens of animal species from the emperor penguin to Australia’s koalas, according to a report released at the UN climate summit.

Australia’s iconic koala faces malnutrition and ultimate starvation as the nutritional quality of eucalyptus leaves declines as CO2 levels increase, said the study from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), an intergovernmental group.

Rising sea levels, ocean acidification and shrinking polar ice [all dodgy claims – Ed] are taking a heavy toll on species already struggling to cope with pollution and shrinking habitats, the report added.

“Humans are not the only ones whose fate is at stake here in Copenhagen – some of our favourite species are also taking the fall for our CO2 emissions,” said Wendy Foden, an IUCN researcher and co-author of the study. (source)

And there are yet more misrepresentations and spin about natural disasters. The UN grudgingly had to concede that natural disasters were the lowest for a decade, but Margareta Wahstrom, UN disaster risk wonk, quickly played the “climate change joker”:

The figures showed that weather related disasters accounts for 91.4 percent of all natural disasters recorded this year.

To be specific, out of the 245 disasters in 2009, 224 were weather related, accounting for 55 million people out of 58 million people affected, 7000 out of 8900 of those killed, and 15 billion US dollars out of the 19 billion dollars in economic damages.

Because of more effective prediction and mitigation, the death and economic loss due to natural disasters are lower than previous years. Wahlstrom said it’s a good news for people and countries.

“However extreme weather disasters remain top of the list and will continue to affect more people in the future”, said Wahlstrom when talking about the increasing trend of weather related disasters and the background of climate change behind it. (source)

As we all know, there is no demonstrated link between climate change and increased storm activity. This is “Al Gore science”, but presented as hard fact. But who cares about the facts when we have to blackmail the planet into pointless action on climate change?