Roy Spencer responds to Dessler


The saga continues

Roy Spencer has indicated he will be preparing a paper in response to Dessler’s response to Spencer and Braswell’s original paper in Remote Sensing – although he jokes it will take longer than six weeks to get peer-reviewed (because sceptical papers are by definition heresy and must not be given any credibility, © K Trenberth).

However, his initial comments on Dessler are here. The following extract is interesting from the point of view of integrity:

Quoting Dessler’s paper, from the Introduction:

“Introduction
The usual way to think about clouds in the climate system is that they are a feedback… …In recent papers, Lindzen and Choi [2011] and Spencer and Braswell [2011] have argued that reality is reversed: clouds are the cause of, and not a feedback on, changes in surface temperature. If this claim is correct, then significant revisions to climate science may be required.”

But we have never claimed anything like “clouds are the cause of, and not a feedback on, changes in surface temperature”! We claim causation works in BOTH directions, not just one direction (feedback) as he claims. Dr. Dessler knows this very well, and I would like to know:

1) what he was trying to accomplish by such a blatant misrepresentation of our position, and

2) how did all of the peer reviewers of the paper, who (if they are competent) should be familiar with our work, allow such a statement to stand?

I can guess it’s because Dessler’s peer-reviewers are probably all on “the Team”, and they can’t be bothered to actually read the heretical paper Dessler is referring to (or if they did it was treated with contempt), and anyway, who cares if we misrepresent what he wrote? It’s only Spencer, after all.

Double standards at work, as usual.

"And the Eureka Prize for climate propaganda goes to…"


Propaganda

… John Cook, who has been awarded the gong for “Advancement of Scientific Knowledge” in the 2011 Eureka Prize. Cook publishes the website Skeptical Science, which allegedly “rebuts” all the filthy lies peddled by evil deniers (© any alarmist you care to mention).

The Sydney Morning Herald crows:

John Cook, a physics graduate who created the Skeptical Science website to debunk lies and misinformation about climate change science, won the prize for advancement of climate change knowledge, sponsored by the NSW government.

Mr Cook, co-author of Climate Change Denial, started the website in 2007 and has published scientific rebuttals to more than 150 climate change myths. (source)

Impartial presentation of scientific knowledge, however, it ain’t. It is an ideologically driven propaganda site, the sole aim of which is to rubbish, ridicule and dismiss anything which challenges the precious consensus. If you need further evidence of this, simply look at Cook’s publications, which are more concerned with attacking “deniers” than seeking scientific truth. Also check out Lubos Motl’s response to Cook’s “rebuttals” here.

More than anything, however, the award reflects extremely poorly on the Australian Museum, which awards the prizes, and, like so many formerly respectably scientific institutions, has been wholly compromised by a blind acceptance of climate hysteria.

We sure are having a bad week for the integrity of science…

OMG: Un-Skeptical Scientist wins Eureka award


That would be John Cook of the alarmist website (un-) Skeptical Science. For, wait for it, “Advancement of Climate Change Knowledge” – no, really. Words cannot begin to express…

A quote:

“His unique efforts using web and social media tools come at a time when accurate information is essential in terms of understating and responding to climate change,” said Frank Howarth, director of the Australian Museum.

LINK – near the bottom

Where is the gin?

Pal-review at work: Spencer and Braswell rebuttal published after just SIX WEEKS


You review my paper…

Whereas a sceptical paper could take up to TWO YEARS (e.g. Lindzen and Choi). I guess it’s all a question of who you know and what side you’re on, right?

WUWT has the full story.

UPDATE: Luboš Motl goes to work on the rebuttal here. Enjoy – here’s an extract:

Well, I am really amazed that people who have self-evidently no idea about physics – and about basic reality such as the impact of clouds on temperature – could have been accepted to the college: Dessler was allowed to study at Rice University. It’s just utterly incredible how hollow skulls like his might have been accepted to a university.

Let me summarize the basic errors in Dessler’s crackpot rants:

  • he incorrectly assumes that clouds have to “trap” heat if they want to influence the temperature
  • he incorrectly assumes that the cloud cover at a given place isn’t an independent degree of freedom; instead, it is a function of the carbon dioxide emissions
  • he incorrectly assumes that it is illegitimate to test the predicted correlations of various physical models by comparing the simulations with the observations; instead, he thinks that it is legitimate to hide his head into the sand and claim that there is nothing to be seen here
  • more generally, he seems to incorrectly assume that one may be a complete imbecile such as himself to write relevant papers about the energy flows in the atmosphere.

More fallout from Spencer and Braswell


More interesting reading this morning on this disgraceful episode:

Josh nails it

59-41: Newspoll disaster for Labor


Inconsequential

Could we see Labor on sub-40%? Very possibly if they carry on like this. And Tony Abbott now leads Gillard by a clear margin as preferred PM:

JULIA Gillard’s personal support has plunged to a new low as Tony Abbott outstrips her as preferred prime minister and Kevin Rudd surges ahead as the best person to lead Labor.

The Prime Minister appears to have borne the brunt of public disapproval over the failure last week of the government’s plan to send 800 asylum-seekers to Malaysia. Voter satisfaction with Ms Gillard, who is now forced to deal with the Opposition Leader to keep alive the option of processing asylum-seekers overseas, fell six points to a record low of 23 per cent as dissatisfaction jumped seven points to 68 per cent. The only modern prime minister with worse personal support was Paul Keating, who had a satisfaction level of 17 per cent and dissatisfaction of 74 per cent in August 1993.

Ms Gillard’s net satisfaction rating – the difference between voter satisfaction and dissatisfaction – is now minus 45 per cent. As Ms Gillard’s personal standing fell, Mr Abbott jumped clear to a nine-point lead over her as the preferred prime minister, with a rise in support from 39 per cent to 43 per cent. Ms Gillard’s support fell four points to a new low of 34 per cent.

Based on preference flows at the last election, the Coalition has an all-time high two-party-preferred vote of 59 per cent compared with Labor’s 41 per cent. Such a result at an election would reduce Labor to a rump of a party, wiping out dozens of Labor MPs including many ministers. (source)

Treat the electorate with contempt, as Labor has done over and over again, and this is the result.

How do you feel now, Anthony Albanese, about your snide remarks to the Carbon Tax protesters? Labor is the Party of No Consequence, and the Government of Incompetence.

Even warmists should be appalled


War on science

Anyone who values the integrity of science and the scientific process should be appalled at the Spencer and Braswell/Remote Sensing debacle (see here and here).

You can disagree 100% with the conclusions of Spencer and Braswell, but you should still be horrified at the abuse of process and the corruption of the proper scientific method that has allowed chit-chat on warmist blogs to claim the scalp of the editor of a peer-reviewed journal, and force him to make an apology to a warmist scientist for daring to publish the paper in the first place.

Don’t wait up. The silence is deafening. In fact, in yet another highly offensive and inflammatory piece on ABC’s left-wing echo-chamber The Drum by Stephan Lewandowsky (see here for Jo Nova’s view on Lewandowsky) we have quite the reverse. Not only does he fail to defend scientific integrity, he viciously attacks Spencer further with a string of cheap ad hominems and smears, claiming at one point, laughably (but at the same time dead seriously), that:

“every single ‘sceptic’ paper has been debunked within the scientific community.”

Wow. How blinkered can you get? It is a truly extraordinary tirade – full to the brim with insults and positively fizzing with white-hot anger, but demonstrating that his grasp of reality is highly tenuous – whereas the consensus science is squeaky clean, of course, “deniers” (a highly abusive term in itself) peddle only:

“ideology, subterfuge and propaganda.”

Unleashed? More like unhinged. You can read it for yourself here.

And where’s the defence of the scientific process? Of scientific integrity? Of the proper procedures for rebuttal? Nowhere to be seen. I wonder what Lewandowsky’s reaction would have been if a paper by Jimmy Hansen or Gavin Schmidt had been subjected to the same treatment. Would we have seen the same reluctance to condemn the abuse of process? Answers on a postcard. Obviously, it’s only an abuse when Lewandowsky himself determines the science warrants it.

The kind of hyperbole that Lewandowsky engages in his articles does nothing for the most important cause of all, the search for truth in science. His view is that scientific debate should apparently be censored and restricted to the papers that he personally considers appropriate, in other words that anyone who dares challenge the consensus is a [cue cliché] filthy denier funded by big oil. I am sure everyone else is as thoroughly sick of such stereotyping as I am.

But I guess we can take comfort from the fact that such a display of barely controlled rage betrays a deep-seated underlying weakness and fear. As I mentioned in a previous post, the CO2 hypothesis is built on such shaky foundations, all it takes is a puff of wind to shake them, and get the alarmists winding themselves up into full-blown tirades of abuse and vitriol.

Journal editor "apologises" to warmist for publishing sceptical paper


Bullied by the warmists

It really does beggar belief. Climate science reduced to the level of playground bullies, with journal editors feeling they have to resign for publishing a paper which the “consensus boys” failed to exclude by their cosy pal-review process.

But not only that, we now read in an article on Daily Climate by Kevin Trenberth, John Abraham and Peter Gleick, the following astonishing statement:

Kevin Trenberth received a personal note of apology from both the editor-in-chief and the publisher of Remote Sensing. Wagner took this unusual and admirable step after becoming aware of the paper’s serious flaws. (source)

So because a warmist scientist considers the paper has flaws, a journal editor chooses to resign and apologise. Let’s turn the situation around for a moment: I would assume that Spencer and many other sceptical scientists would have a few issues with some of the consensus boys’ papers too, but I don’t see any editors rushing to resign because of that, do you? No, of course not.

Note that this has nothing to do with the worth of the scientific claims in the paper itself – this is all about procedure, and the integrity of the scientific process. The proper steps would be for Trenberth et al to rebut Spencer’s claims in a further, peer-reviewed, paper, or alternatively seek a retraction from the journal. Neither of these things has happened. A few comments on a blog is enough now – provided you’re on the warmist side.

Such is the power and influence wielded by the alarmist coterie, and the almost total politicisation of climate science, that almost without lifting a finger, a journal can be intimidated into providing a grovelling apology for daring to publish a paper which challenges the consensus. Truly jaw-dropping.

One has to ask, why are they so afraid? Is their CO2 driven construction so fragile that it cannot withstand a paper which, according to the alarmists, is total rubbish anyway? Why must they shut down scientific discourse, if the sceptics case is so weak, rather than let it be given the public ridicule it so obviously deserves? You can draw your own conclusions – I have mine.

There is much, much more – Roger Pielke Sr takes the whole thing apart here – read it all.

However, Maurizio Morabito, commenting on Pielke Jr’s blog, provides a cheering conclusion to the ridiculous extremes we have now reached:

“If “post-publication discussions of a scientific paper in the media or on blogs” can now “be used as the basis for subsequently re-evaluating the scientific merit of that paper within the scientific peer review process”, it just means that blogs and the media are now to be considered on-par with peer-review as ways to evaluate the scientific merit of a paper.

In other words, all people that support Wagner’s resignation are telling the world that the old complaint against skeptics “your article hasn’t been subjected to peer-review!” is not valid any longer. A blog or an interview will suffice.

Methinks only Gavin could come up with such a spectacular own goal.”

The Sunday Age: first climate question


The top three

The Sunday Age publishes the results of its “OurSay” survey, and addresses the top question in an article entitled “The question is, what earthly difference can we make?”:

Jason Fong’s question was the runaway winner of the OurSay climate agenda poll.

THE policy of both major parties is to reduce Australia’s carbon dioxide emissions by 5 per cent by 2020, even though both know that, in Jason Fong’s words, it will make ”negligible” difference to global temperatures.

So the question is, why bother? If the key goal of global climate policy is to at least cap temperature increases, what difference can Australian action make? There is a factual answer to the question, and there’s a context that is more complicated. (source)

I’ll leave it up to you to decide what you think of their response. I guess ACM’s question will be answered in a fortnight’s time.

The Sunday Age: Climate Agenda update


Set the agenda

The Sunday Age’s Climate Agenda poll has finished, with ACM’s question finishing overall third (see here) with 1436 votes. Just a reminder, here is the question again:

It is accepted that man’s carbon dioxide emissions are causing an amount of warming [of] the climate. However, the magnitude of any future warming is highly uncertain. The IPCC acknowledges that its understanding of a number of key natural climate drivers and feedbacks is “low” or “very low”. Why is it, therefore, that the Fairfax press is reluctant to engage with and investigate this uncertainty with an open-minded impartiality, and instead continues to publish articles based on a rigid editorial agenda that “the science is settled”?

And ironically enough, the Sunday Age’s own home page for the Climate Agenda experiment proves the point perfectly, just by the collection of climate change stories they have assembled to illustrate the issues:

Climate change sceptics endangered: study

Climate change sceptics are an endangered species in Australia, a national survey shows.

Is this the solution to the impact of climate change?

New coastal housing built near Portland will need to be ”relocatable” to meet the threat from climate change sea level rises, storm surges and erosion

Rudd pans climate-change sceptics

Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd says anyone who still doubts the science of climate change should visit northern Europe.

Treasured Bordeaux wines under threat

Bordeaux’s fabled wine grapes are under threat from global warming, climate experts told a meeting of industry leaders

UK storm blamed on climate change

A British study concludes for the first time that an extreme storm there is likely to have doubled in intensity due to human induced climate change.

Mangroves shield against climate change

Mangroves, which have declined by up to half over the past 50 years, are an important bulkhead against climate change, a study released yesterday has shown for the first time.

Climate change is real. Let’s deal with it

Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s announcement of a carbon tax has unleashed another round in the climate change fight.

I also notice they have contacted the first and second place commenters and have quoted them in this article, I wonder when my phone will ring…!