Models wrong again – so what's new?

9 June, 2011 by

Warwick McKibbin

Not climate models this time (for a change), but Treasury modelling of the effects of a carbon price on the Australian economy. And according to Wayne Swan, we won’t even notice it! Brilliant! It’s almost as if the model was tweaked to produce the desired result… where have we heard that before? Tiny little question, if the economy doesn’t notice it, how is it supposed to reduce emissions?

But Swan has been caught out:

A prominent economist who sits on the Reserve Bank board has criticised the Government’s assessment of the economic impact of the carbon tax.

Yesterday Treasurer Wayne Swan said that based on Treasury estimates, a $20 per tonne carbon tax would not have a long-term impact on jobs and the economy.

He said employment will increase by 1.6 million jobs by 2020 under a carbon price.

But economist Warwick McKibbin, from the Australian National University, says the Government’s modelling is flawed.

He told Lateline Business a carbon tax could affect the cost of living.

“That’s the adjustment process in these models; if you raise carbon taxes and people lose their jobs, real wages will fall and therefore you’ll go back to full employment,” he said.

“So the critical question in that sort of model is not what happens to jobs: it’s what happens to real standard of living.”

Professor McKibbin runs his own software company which develops modelling for policy analysis, including a carbon pricing model.

He says he has submitted different modelling to Treasury and says the Government should use his model in its estimates.

“It would be very unfortunate if the leaked announcement that came out yesterday about the employment effects of carbon taxes was used in a model that wasn’t mine, because mine is the only model that has unemployment,” he said.

“The other models that people have for carbon pricing actually assumes full employment, so by definition, no matter what you do to the economy, employment cannot change.

“What should happen if you put on a carbon tax in those models is real wages should fall. Now, from the selective leaking, I think that that question hasn’t fully been understood.” (source)

Indeed.

Filed Under: Climate Tagged With:

ANU death threats story "goes cold"

9 June, 2011 by

Story gone cold

The Daily Telegraph has picked up on the fact that this was a non-story all along, designed to distract attention from the real issues at hand :

CLAIMS prominent climate change scientists had recently received death threats have been revealed as an opportunistic ploy, with the Australian National University admitting that they occurred up to five years ago.

Only two of ANU’s climate change scientists allegedly received death threats, the first in a letter posted in 2006-2007 and the other an offhand remark made in person 12 months ago.

Neither was officially reported to ACT Police or Australian Federal Police, despite such crimes carrying a 10-year prison sentence.

The outdated threats raised question marks over the timing of their release to the public, with claims they were aired last week to draw sympathy to scientists and their climate change cause.

The university denied it was creating a ruse, maintaining the initial report, in the Fairfax-owned Canberra Times last week, failed to indicate when the threats were made.Reports also suggested the threats had forced the ANU to lock away its climate change scientists and policy advisers in a high-security complex. The Daily Telegraph has discovered the nine scientists and staff in question were merely given keyless swipe cards – routine security measures taken last year. (source)

Also read Tim Blair on the subject here, where he reveals that the emails quoted in the press yesterday had been kicking around since early 2010. Geez.

UPDATE: Watts Up With That on the Aussie issue here.

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Australia isn't "catching up", it's going it alone

8 June, 2011 by

More spin

This is one of the biggest lies told by the government about a price on carbon, and there are plenty to choose from. We’re being “left behind”, the world is “rushing towards a low carbon economy” and if we don’t price carbon tomorrow, we’ll never catch up… blah blah. It’s nonsense, naturally.

US states are bailing out of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative as fast as they can, the federal US, Japan, Canada and Russia have announced they have no intention of forming part of a new Kyoto deal, China and India are full steam ahead for economic growth (with a few token gestures towards greening up thrown in, but their emissions will keep on rising), and the only countries to have an ETS are part of the EU scheme, mired in fraud and corruption, or tiny states like New Zealand, neither of which will make any significant difference to emissions.

So it should come as no surprise that Australian coal mines will be virtually the only ones in the world hit with the carbon tax on “fugitive emissions”, which includes gases emitted “from the production, processing, transport, storage and distribution of raw fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) (source)”, as The Australian reports:

NO major coal-producing country currently imposes a direct charge on greenhouse gas emissions from coalmines, according to research released last night as industry prepared to intensify its opposition to Julia Gillard’s carbon tax scheme.

After Wayne Swan yesterday announced that a much-anticipated Productivity Commission report into international climate regimes would show that seven of Australia’s top-10 trading partners had adopted major policies to reduce pollution [I’ll believe that when I see it – Ed] the Australian Coal Association launched a pre-emptive strike against the report’s findings.

The association released research by the Centre for International Economics that showed none of the major coal-exporting countries “either currently, or has concrete plans to impose, a direct or indirect constraint on fugitive emissions from coalmining”.

Major coal producers such as Anglo American Australia, Xstrata Holdings , Peabody Energy Australia, Centenary Coal Company and BM Alliance Coal Operations all appear among the 1000 companies that will be subject to the Gillard government’s carbon tax.

The Australian Coal Association research was backed by Minerals Council of Australia chief executive Mitch Hooke, who said the same could be said for the nation’s major competitors in 13 key commodities such as iron ore, gold, nickel and aluminium.

“Not one of Australia’s top four competitors in the 13 key commodities has a functioning carbon pricing scheme except Poland, which exempts emissions from the coalmining process,” Mr Hooke said. Australian Coal Association executive director Ralph Hillman said the CIE report showed that the government’s proposed carbon tax would add to the costs of Australian coalminers, “while our competitors will bear no such burden”. (source)

Once again, the reality is vastly different from the government spin. Australia is going out on a limb, and will suffer as a result.

And on another subject, read how the Australian public won’t even pay $2 to offset their air travel. I wonder how they’ll cope with a carbon tax.

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Where are the "death threats"?

7 June, 2011 by

Lots of abuse

I may be being overly pernickety here, which as a lawyer I often am, but having seen extracts from the ANU emails (go here – warning, strong language), none of them come remotely close to a “death threat”. The vast majority of it is good old fashioned abuse (and we’ve all had our fair share of that – solution: you hit the delete button), but there are no death threats (original story on this here).

The worst are probably:

“Die you lying bastard”

“The quicker that C*nts like you and your kind Die the better”

Which is kind of like saying “F*** off and die” to someone – in other words, hoping that someone will die rather than a clear threat to kill. Just for the record, my interpretation of a “death threat” or a threat to kill would be something explicit, along the lines of: “Unless you stop your research, I will kill you.” Result: go directly to jail, do not pass Go, do not collect $200.

If it had been reported as mere abuse, the story wouldn’t have got any traction. But because of the “death threat” angle, a Google search brings up over 5,000 hits, and the story has now reached as far as the UK’s Guardian and Telegraph newspapers, both of which repeat the allegation of death threats:

A number of Australia’s leading climate scientists have been moved into safer accommodation after receiving death threats, in a further escalation of the country’s increasingly febrile carbon price debate.

The revelation of the death threats follows a week of bitter exchanges between the government and the opposition in the wake of a pro-carbon price TV advert featuring actor Cate Blanchett. (Guardian – source)

And the Telegraph:

Australia’s top climate scientists have been forced to move their offices to a secure location after they received death threats relating to their work on global warming.

As an intense debate over how to tackle climate change in the country becomes increasingly vicious, a team of high-profile researchers at the Australian National University in Canberra has been given increased security protection after a campaign of menacing and abusive emails and phone calls intensified in recent weeks.

The threats, which included sexual assault, sexual attacks on family members and public smear campaigns, were so serious and so explicit that the Australian Federal Police have been called in to investigate. (source)

That last bit is factually incorrect, since an email to the AFP media centre yesterday revealed that “no complaint had been received.” I guess that’s just the Chinese whispers of the media at work. Of course, the AFP and ACT police wouldn’t be interested in any of the stuff released above.

Obviously, such emails are wholly unacceptable from both sides, but the warmists haven’t exactly got clean hands. Let’s just remind ourselves of some of the hate and vitriol that anyone who dares question the consensus has been subjected to for years.

  • Just on Saturday, Richard Glover in the Sydney Morning Herald wrote that climate change “deniers” should be “forcibly tattooed on their heads”.
  • In 2009, a commenter wrote “At what point do we jail or execute global warming deniers?”
  • James Hansen in 2008 called for trials of climate sceptics for “high crimes against humanity”
  • Robert F Kennedy said sceptics should be “treated as traitors”
  • Go here for a longer list

Arguably, these statement, whilst not containing the swear words and abuse, are far more concerning than anything in the ANU emails so far released. They are calls to treat an entire class of person, namely anyone who questions the alarmist consensus, as a criminal or traitor, and that class of person should therefore suffer the same punishments and restrictions on liberty as their genuine counterparts.

Obviously, if further evidence is forthcoming of genuine death threats, then such criminal action should, indeed must, be investigated, and if the perpetrators found guilty, punished with the full force of the law. But as it stands… hit delete.

Filed Under: Climate

Carbon Cate buys beachfront property… in Vanuatu

7 June, 2011 by

Buying beachfront property?

Now if you were really concerned about climate change, as she clearly is, having badgered us all to pay more tax for no reason, why would you buy a beachfront property on an island that all the alarmists agree is one of the first in line to be swamped by the alleged sea level rises resulting from, er, climate change? And why stop at Vanuatu, go the whole hog and buy something on Tuvalu?

The movie star-turned-ecowarrior is believed to have recently bought a plot of land in Vanuatu, one of the countries hardest hit by global warming.

Rising sea levels caused the evacuation of a village in the Pacific island nation in 2005, the first time climate change was known to have displaced an entire community. [Just for the record, climate change had nothing to do with it – sea levels have been rising at the same rate for centuries – Ed]

Blanchett is thought to have bought a waterfront property near the luxury area of Havannah Harbour during a visit last year.

…

However, it may not be paradise for long. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says sea levels could rise by as much as 59cm by 2100 in Vanuatu, which would obliterate much of beachfront property. (source)

But Carbon Cate isn’t bovvered, clearly. She can just go to one of her numerous other properties around the world when that one falls into the sea.

Unfortunately, Cate is just the latest in a long line of eco-celebrities who lecture the little people on how they should behave, and then go and do precisely the opposite. Like Al Gore. Yawn. Next.

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Majority oppose carbon [dioxide] tax

6 June, 2011 by

Resounding "no"

Despite all the hype and media spin of yesterday’s “rent-a-bunch-of-Lefty-lemmings” demonstrations in favour of a carbon dioxide tax, the majority of Australians are firmly against it. Furthermore, they believe that Julia Gillard has no mandate for such a tax and should call an election. And they believe it will do nothing for the environment. Funny that, it’s what we’ve been saying on this site since it was announced in February:

AUSTRALIANS are demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election, saying she has no mandate for a carbon tax.

With less than a third of all voters now claiming to support the tax, the federal government is facing a nationwide backlash if it proceeds.

An exclusive Galaxy poll commissioned by The Daily Telegraph has revealed 73 per cent of people claim they will end up worse off under the tax. Just 7 per cent believe they could end up better off in some way.

More fatal for the Prime Minister, however, was the overwhelming support for an election to be called on the issue – confirming widespread anger over her broken election promise not to introduce a carbon tax.

A total of 64 per cent said they wanted a fresh election. Only 24 per cent believed the PM had a mandate.

And in a growing sentiment that the tax would not help solve the climate change problem, 75 per cent believed it would have only a minor impact on the environment – or no impact at all.

The devastating poll results, showing total opposition now at 58 per cent, confirm the government has so far failed to make an effective case for its tax.

They also reflect Liberal Party internal polling showing support for Tony Abbott’s campaign to force the government to an early election, despite analysis showing the Coalition’s alternative direct action plan would be even more costly. (source)

When the crunch comes, Australians are thankfully far too sensible to have the wool pulled over their eyes. Those at the pro-tax rallies yesterday are the deluded ones, out of touch with reality and the wishes of the vast majority of the population.

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Pro-carbon tax protesters can pay it for the rest of us

5 June, 2011 by

Thanks for agreeing to pay for me!

ABC TV was metaphorically wetting itself this evening, with a sycophantic, grovelling piece about the brave climate warriors at the pro-tax rallies today. Every single one of them was there on the basis of a lie, namely that a carbon tax in Australia will somehow make a difference to the climate. Sorry to disappoint you all guys, but IT WON’T. And it won’t make China and India abandon their plans for economic growth either. Nor will it make Japan, Russia, Canada or the US change their mind on abandoning Kyoto 2.

But that doesn’t stop them. They think they’re doing something for the climate, and the hackneyed “children and grandchildren”. They really think they’re “saving the planet”, the poor deluded souls! They can’t even be honest about the number who attended – hang on, I guess these are warmists we’re talking about, so whenever there’s a number involved, you can bet it has been inflated or fudged. Hide the Decline (of protesters).

They seem to want to throw their money away, so here’s a novel idea: the pro-tax protesters can pay the carbon tax for the rest of us. Despite the fact that it won’t make a skerrick of difference to the climate, thousands apparently showed their support for paying more tax for no reason, so I think we should let them. Here’s the deal, if you turn up for a pro-carbon tax rally (or are a member of the Labor party or GetUp!), you should automatically be forced to pay the burden of the tax for not only yourself, but also the hundreds or thousands of other people who don’t want it and stayed at home. Simple.

We should be thanking them in fact, for agreeing to pay a pointless tax for the rest of us who are intelligent enough to see that it will make no difference to the climate whatsoever. Now where’s Julia’s email address?

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"Death threats" to ANU scientists

4 June, 2011 by

Why no investigation?

The ABC and other news sources are reporting that climate scientists at the Australian National University (ANU) have received “death threats”. The ANU climate department is a hotbed (if you will excuse the phrase) of warmism, and is the home of government scaremonger, sorry, adviser Will Steffen:

Several of Australia’s top climate change scientists at the Australian National University have been subjected to a campaign of death threats, forcing the university to tighten security.

Several of the scientists in Canberra have been moved to a more secure location after receiving the threats over their research.

Vice-chancellor Professor Ian Young says the scientists have received large numbers of emails, including death threats and abusive phone calls, threatening to attack the academics in the street if they continue their research.

However, a later part of the article says the following:

The Australian Federal Police says it is aware of the issue, but there is no investigation underway.

Last time I checked, which was about thirty seconds ago, making threats to kill in the ACT was a criminal offence, thanks to section 30 of the Crimes Act (ACT) 1900, and punishable by a maximum of ten years imprisonment. A similar provision for threats to kill via a postal service or carriage service appears in the Schedule to the Commonwealth Criminal Code Act 1995, with a similar punishment.

TEN YEARS in clink? That’s a serious offence. So if such threats have been made, why isn’t it being fully investigated?

Read it here.

Filed Under: Climate

Carbon [dioxide] market "stalled"

4 June, 2011 by

Not worth the paper it's printed on

The Australian reports:

THE World Bank has revealed the global market for trading in carbon permits has stalled, just weeks out from the federal government’s release of its detailed plans to shift to an emissions trading scheme.

But while the opposition and miners demanded Julia Gillard slam the brakes on her carbon pricing plans in light of the latest World Bank review of the international carbon market, the Prime Minister’s climate change adviser Ross Garnaut urged her to press on with her reforms. [No surprise there – Ed]

“This should be the best of times for structural change in Australia,” he told a policy forum yesterday. [That’s code for “economic suicide” by the way – Ed]

The World Bank report found that after five consecutive years of robust growth, the total value of the global carbon market had stalled at $142 billion last year, despite a continued rise in emissions.

The value of the primary Clean Development Mechanism market fell by double digits for the third year in a row, ending lower than it was in 2005, the first year of the Kyoto Protocol.

It also remained dominated by Europe, which accounts for 97 per cent of total trades, defying efforts to make the market a truly global affair.

Opposition climate action spokesman Greg Hunt yesterday said the level of volatility in carbon markets in Europe and America was of concern. “I think the government must explain how a market which can be changed at the whim of international players will provide certainty,” he said.

The Chicago Climate Exchange collapsed last year, with carbon credits trading for cents.

Read it here.

Filed Under: Climate

Climate gimmick number 5,324,927

3 June, 2011 by

You'll get piles doing that mate

Carve a polar bear out of ice in the middle of Sydney. Watch it melt. Suddenly you believe in climate change.

No, really.

Link.

But wait, there’s more. They froze the ice around a bronze skeleton. In London. And then flew it to Australia. Really. In a plane. Which emits carbon. Honestly. I’m not making this up. Link.

I need a stiff drink…

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