Australia's shivering start to August


More brazen monkeys

More from the Weather Isn’t Climate Department – I can hardly keep up!

It’s all meaningless of course, it’s just weather after all.But you don’t hear the mainstream media, or Tim Flannery, or Clive Hamilton or David Karoly or Will Steffen, all rushing to bleat that this is evidence that “global warming” has slowed, or that such weather “is not consistent” with global warming models.

Whereas, if it was a heatwave on the other hand, as we will no doubt get come summer, all the above will be whining on about how it was “entirely consistent with” projections for climate change.

That’s the great thing about double standards and unfalsifiable hypotheses, right lads?

In New South Wales:

Sydney’s coldest start to August in 14 years

Sydney has shivered through its coldest start to August in over a decade.

On Wednesday, the first morning of the month started out on a cool note, dipping to seven degrees just after 5am. While this was only two degrees below average, it was the coldest first morning of the month in 14 years. (source)

and:

Icy morning in NSW

Parts of New South Wales endured the coldest August morning in 12 years as fog and frost descended on the state.

The Central West Slopes and Plains saw their lowest August temperatures since 2000 this morning. Trangie and Condobolin Airport cooled to -4 degrees, which was eight and seven degrees below average respectively. 

Clear skies and light winds last night combined with lingering cold air, following days of persistent southerly winds. This set up allowed heat to radiate away from the surface during the night, providing the ideal conditions for the mercury to plummet this morning. (source)

In South Australia:

Temperatures plunge across SA

August has made a chilly entrance in South Australia.

It has been the coldest August night in Adelaide for 13 years.

The temperature dropped to 2.2 degrees Celsius about 6:20am at the weather bureau at Kent Town and to just 1.3 at Adelaide Airport. (source)

In Queensland:

Coldest morning in years in Brisbane and Bundaberg

It was one of the coldest mornings of the year for Queensland with a few places having their coldest morning in over a decade. 

All of Queensland recorded temperatures below the August average except for parts of the Peninsula.

People felt the chill as Brisbane had its coldest morning in four years, dropping to a chilly 4.6 degrees, six below the August average.

Bundaberg Airport was a standout, falling to 3.4 degrees this morning. This was its coldest morning in 17 years and was eight degrees below average.

Mount Isa was very cold, dropping below freezing for only the second time this year and registering its coldest morning in 10 years. It was a staggering 11 degrees below average, reaching minus one.

Blackall in the Central West also recorded its coldest morning in 9 years, dropping to minus two. (source)

All courtesy of Weatherzone.

Adelaide's coldest August morning in 13 years


Brass monkeys

From the Weather Isn’t Climate Department:

 It has been a chilly start to August for Adelaide, plunging down to 2.2 degrees this morning, making it the coldest August morning in 13 years.

Just before sunrise, Adelaide dipped down to its lowest August temperature since 1999, when it dropped to 1.7 degrees. This morning’s 2.2 degrees was six below the August average minimum of 8.2 degrees.

This has been a particularly rare morning with Adelaide actually being colder than Canberra.

This freezing morning can be attributed to the combination of several influences. A cold front which passed recently brought a pool of cold air. A large high pressure system then moved overhead which cleared skies and made winds become light.

The city was not the only place which felt the cold. Adelaide Airport recorded 1.3 degrees, their lowest August temperature in 10 years. Elizabeth got down to 0.1 degrees, which is also a 10-year low for August. Noarlunga plunged to 4.2, their coldest August morning since 2006.

It won’t remain too cold all day with a top of 15 degrees expected during the early afternoon. The next few mornings also look like being warmer, due to extra cloud cover and wind bringing temperatures closer to average. (source)

Perth on track for 'coldest month on record'


Not quite snowman weather, but still…

From the Weather Isn’t Climate department.

Damn you, global warming:

Perth is on track to have the coldest month on record.

This morning the temperature dipped to 0.4 degrees at 6.24am – and at 8am, it was still only three degrees.

That is the coldest day since July 5, 2010 when 0.3 degrees was recorded in the city.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Matt Boterhoven told WAtoday.com.au that today’s minimum took this month’s tally of cold mornings to 15.

The bureau counts temperatures of less than five degrees as cold mornings.

Mr Boterhoven said the record for cold mornings was 16 in a month, which was reached in July 2010, 2001 and 1998.

He said with forecasts predicting a minimum of two degrees for tomorrow and four degrees on Friday, there was a good chance that record would be beaten. 

The days ahead for Perth: Thursday: Partly cloudy. Min 2, max 18. Friday: Partly cloudy. Min 4, max 19. Saturday: Mostly sunny. Min 5, max 20. Sunday: Mostly sunny. Min 5, max 21. (source)

h/t Ice Age Now

Canberra's coldest mornings since 1965


A light dusting of global warming there…

From the Weather Isn’t Climate department. Cue Tim Flannery, Will Steffen or David Karoly saying that this is “consistent with global warming” in 3, 2, 1…

Canberra has shivered through its eighth straight freezing, frosty morning, the coldest stretch of winter mornings in 47 years.

The mercury dropped to a chilly minus 4.8 degrees at 6.51am this morning, topping off eight consecutive mornings below minus 2.3 degrees.

The eight-day cold spell, with an average minimum temperature of minus 4.9, is the coldest string of July mornings since 1965. The all-time record was in July 1962, when the average temperature over an eight-day period was minus 7.

Canberrans felt the worst of the cold on Wednesday, when temperatures fell to minus 6.1 degrees, 6 degrees colder than the long-term July average of minus 0.1.

Wednesday’s low is still far from the record July minimum of minus 10 degrees, recorded in 1971, but is just shy of the lowest temperature recorded this year, which was minus 6.3 degrees on June 20. (source)

Australian temperature records 'shoddy, inaccurate, unreliable'


Sydney Observatory (no UHI there, no siree)

From Jo Nova:

The BOM say their temperature records are high quality. An independent audit team has just produced a report showing that as many as 85 – 95% of all Australian sites in the pre-Celsius era (before 1972) did not comply with the BOM’s own stipulations. The audit shows 20-30% of all the measurements back then were rounded or possibly truncated. Even modern electronic equipment was at times, so faulty and unmonitored that one station rounded all the readings for nearly 10 years! These sloppy errors may have created an artificial warming trend.

The BOM are issuing pronouncements of trends to two decimal places like this one  in the BOM’s Annual Climate Summary 2011 of “0.52 °C above average”  yet relying on patchy data that did not meet its own compliance standards around half the time.  It’s doubtful they can justify one decimal place, let alone two?

We need a professional audit.

Forget surface stations, just use satellites.

Read it all here.

Scientists predict… more of whatever we've just had


Climate astrology

The role of natural variability in climate must be squashed at all costs. Just think of the consequences if natural variability were allowed to persist: we wouldn’t be able to “control” the climate by tinkering with a harmless trace gas, and we wouldn’t be able to shame Western civilisation into abandoning centuries of progress in order to “save the planet”. We might have to just accept what nature throws at us – and adapt.

And, more worryingly for The Cause, we wouldn’t be able to fill government and research coffers with taxpayers money, extracted by means of “carbon pricing”. And that would be a disaster. So whatever weather phenomenon happens, we can be sure that we will get more of the same, and it will be blamed on “man made global warming” to keep the bandwagon rolling.

For the last decade, Australia has suffered a period of drought. Prior to its recent end, scientists were falling over themselves to say that this was the “new climate” that we must get used to. Paid government hacks like Tim Flannery wailed about dams never filling again, and billions were spent on desalination plants to cater for the future without water.

How things change. After some of the worst floods in recent history in New South Wales, the alarmist Sydney Morning Herald finds a scientist to say that in future we will have… more floods. In other words, more of whatever we’ve just had:

EXPERTS PREDICT SURGE IN FLOODS

SPORTS fields, car parks and parklands will be important assets; houses will have walls that open, and some people might need to lose their water views to prepare for bigger, more frequent floods due to global warming, according to experts contacted by the Herald.

As global temperatures rise, short storm bursts will increase in frequency and severity, resulting in more flash flooding, especially in urban areas. But the outlook for longer periods of extreme rain, such as those that caused the flooding of the Darling, Lachlan and Murrumbidgee rivers, and which made the Warragamba Dam overflow this year, is less certain.

There is consensus in the scientific literature that ”the flooding that happens on small urban type of catchments, which is a result of short rainfall bursts, is going up, because convection is intensifying”, Professor Ashish Sharma, an Australian Research Council future fellow in the school of civil and environmental engineering at the University of NSW, said.

He said it was ”99 per cent sure” that the cause was global warming. A warmer atmosphere holds more water and releases it in shorter bursts, as seen in the tropics, Professor Sharma said. 

And notice that they have a bob each way – claiming that long term trends are less certain – so we can have more floods AND more drought and they’ll be right in both cases! There’s more:

What scientists agree on is that the assumption the future climate will mirror the past, known among scientists as ”stationarity”, no longer holds. This has implications for flood planning.

”This represents a major break with past practice”, Seth Westra, a senior lecturer in the school of civil, environmental and mining engineering at the University of Adelaide, said.

”The notion that the climatic drivers of flooding are changing through time not only poses profound challenges on how we estimate future floods, but also challenges the way we design [for] and manage future floods,” he said in a paper written for the federal government-funded National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. (source)

How anyone could possibly “assume” that future climate will mirror the past, when climate has been changing for 4.5 billion years, is almost incredible. Even without the AGW scare, climate has always changed, over every time period, and always will.

What’s so amazing about this kind of article is the almost unbelievable lack of any historical perspective. So desperate are the Herald to link any weather phenomenon to global warming (especially with the Herald-sponsored Earth Hour just around the corner), that they will purposefully find a scientist who will say the right thing.

The unfalsifiable hypothesis gets stronger, and ever closer to climate astrology.

Bureau of Meteorology's summer forecasts: 'hopeless again'


Max anomaly predictions

Anecdotally, from my weather station here on the Upper North Shore in Sydney, this has been the Year without a Summer. Mean temperatures for December, January and February were 18.6C, 21.5C and 21.6C, significantly lower than 2010/11 (21.7, 23.9, 24.1) and 2009/10 (22.9, 23.9, 23.4).

Overall summer means for the three months December, January and February were 20.5C for 2011/12, down 2.8C compared to 2010/11 and 2.9C compared to 2009/10. All totally meaningless in terms of climate, of course, but interesting none the less.

Warwick Hughes on the warmist BoM predictions for the Year:

This summer has been cooler than average across vast areas of Australia. Which has been a surprise to the BoM.

The BoM 3 month summer temperature outlooks were issued in November – actual daytime temperature anomalies were cooler over vastly more area of Australia than the BoM predicted. The actual warmth along the Perth to Pilbara coast and Sth Aust & Vic turned out to be miniscule compared to the BoM predictions. Ditto for the Far North which turned out near average. The BoM scores some marks for their Eastern and Central Australian cool predict but all of their hot predictions turned out cooler and smaller.

Source.

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